Horse Prices - your predictions of where they are going

[Jellymoon]

Prices are crazy high at the moment, as we all know, due to Covid, was just wondering if you think they will go back down or if they are here to stay.
Was just looking at a horse very similar to one I bought 4 yrs ago and it was triple the price.
I’m not looking to buy now, thankfully, but I might want something in a couple of years and I’m really hoping I won’t need to pay high 4 figures/low 5 figures for a just backed 4’yr old 15.1 Irish all rounder.

 

[Lipglosspukka]

I think they will go down but not as far down as they have been in recent years.

 

[ownedbyaconnie]

I don’t think they’ll go back to what they were. I think well bred, well started youngsters were probably always undervalued until recently.

 

[Baccara]

Quality horses will hold their price, but I think there will be a lot of cobby types, with poor confirmation, handling problems and with vet problems coming back onto the market, at give away prices.

 

[atropa]

I actually think they will crash. I think the economy is in for a rocky ride as we try to recover from Covid.

 

[Bernster]

I seem to be rubbish as predicting the economy (good job it’s not my job!) as I’d have thought prices would have come down already but nope they still seem to be pretty healthy. Agree though that horse prices have been low and not enough profit for breeders. They do seem to be selling though.

 

[Equi]

I think the price of a safe sane sound solid animal for those who haven’t got aims of the olympics will stay very highly priced and hard to come by. As they should be. Just means I have to save for 20 years ?

 

[windand rain]

I think it will stay high for quality maybe even go higher but I also think leisure horses are probably ultimately a thing of the past. There will sadly be a whole bunch of wrongly bred youngsters hit the market as people will have put mares in foal hoping for a big bounce but horses value is in age unlike puppies who are very quickly to market

 

[spacefaer]

I think the rubbish that was overpriced and sold unseen will come back on the market with hopefully more realistic price tags - by which I mean the physically or temperamentally unsound which people bought untried and in a rush last summer (the dodgy dealer's dream clients!)

Quality, well produced horses will remain at a premium as they're hard to find and have a rarity value.

 

[Wishfilly]

I think it's very hard to say. At the moment, there's very little for sale locally. I think prices have come down a little since last summer, but obviously it's hard to say. I think the crash in the market people predicted is not going to happen, and really good quality all rounders/youngsters will hold the higher price, but everything else will slowly start to come back down in price.

I seem to be rubbish as predicting the economy (good job it’s not my job!) as I’d have thought prices would have come down already but nope they still seem to be pretty healthy. Agree though that horse prices have been low and not enough profit for breeders. They do seem to be selling though.

Furlough hasn't ended yet, and I think that will be the real test for the economy.

 

[ownedbyaconnie]

Furlough hasn't ended yet, and I think that will be the real test for the economy.

I think this is key. People are used to having a bit of extra cash from not commuting/buying lunch coffee etc and very time rich from not actually being at work or wfh and suddenly the horse that eats most of your money and needs riding 6 times a week to keep sane seems less appealing when there are things like pubs, holidays and shops open again to spend time/money on.

Then there will be the unlucky few/many (who knows yet?!) that lose their jobs and the cost becomes a real issue.

 

[SO1]

I think a lot will be depend on what happens with social distancing over the next 18 months.

Once social distancing ends then people who have saved money by working from home and not commuting, and who have not spent any money on leisure for nearly 18 months will have lot of disposable income and want to go out and do things again. There will be a massive surge in the leisure industry as people become desperate to go out and do things again, and this will help get people back into work in these areas.

The downside of this is that people may be back in offices and workplaces with more work and less time for horse care and leisure due to commuting and more work. They also may decide that they want to spend their leisure time with family and friends instead of at the yard and want to go on holidays and spend their money in a different way.

It is not just about how much disposable income there is floating around in the economy it is how people will decide to spend it or if they decide to save it.

I think once social distancing ends there will be a period like the roaring 20's people will be desperate to socialise again and have a good time again this will fuel the economy. Sadly there will also be quite a few people who probably will have inherited money due to the impact this has had on elderly people who have passed away before their time.

I don't think horse prices will fall this year for nice all rounders, schoolmasters or decent young stock, what will probably happen is that people will be trying to sell horses that they have been mis sold which have health or temperament problems which will be very hard to move as the dealers hoping to pass them on for quick profit or knowledgeable people who may have taken them on to reschool because they can't afford what they really want, will realise that market is changing and will look elsewhere.

 

[Bernster]

Yup, SO1, I’m looking forward to the roaring 2021s or so when people will be desparate for outings and having fun! Sign me up ?

 

[Silver Clouds]

If the lifting of CV19 restrictions go as planned then we might start to see some of the rushed/impulse purchases over the last year come on the market towards the end of this year as:

1) Furlough ends (so more unemployment)
2) everyone is expected to be back working at the office full time (so earlier starts if you have a horse to see to)
3) there are other things to do socially/for entertainment (as venues/pubs/etc open back up)
4) the above are heightened by the onset of winter weather (and doing horse chores in the dark, with no time to ride)

I think it will probably take another year though to see whether horse prices are going to drop significantly from today's prices, as the economy isn't certain (and neither is the end of the pandemic). As others have said, I think it will be the bottom third of the horse market that is most likely to fall in price.

 

[Wishfilly]

I think this is key. People are used to having a bit of extra cash from not commuting/buying lunch coffee etc and very time rich from not actually being at work or wfh and suddenly the horse that eats most of your money and needs riding 6 times a week to keep sane seems less appealing when there are things like pubs, holidays and shops open again to spend time/money on.

Then there will be the unlucky few/many (who knows yet?!) that lose their jobs and the cost becomes a real issue.

Yes, I do wonder if when other leisure options open back up, and holidays are a thing again, if people will stop wanting to have the "tie" of a horse.

 

[JackFrost]

I haven't yet worked out exactly who was doing all the buying. Anyone know? Was there a large untapped market of knowledgeable horsey people who just didn't own before lockdown, or were the buyers mainly (at best) novices?
Also wondering - horses sold last year were already a few years old. Has there been an increase in breeding in anticipation of the buying spree continuing? Will there be a glut of perhaps not very well bred types in a few years time?

 

[spacefaer]

I haven't yet worked out exactly who was doing all the buying. Anyone know? Was there a large untapped market of knowledgeable horsey people who just didn't own before lockdown, or were the buyers mainly (at best) novices?

A lot of the sales I saw were people with unexpected extra time and money with nowhere to go on holiday who were looking at short term pleasure ie hacking in the sunshine as it was a particularly lovely summer.

Having said that, we sold a fabulous but green hwt hunter type to someone who wanted to put the homework in, ready for shows this summer.

 

[Wishfilly]

I haven't yet worked out exactly who was doing all the buying. Anyone know? Was there a large untapped market of knowledgeable horsey people who just didn't own before lockdown, or were the buyers mainly (at best) novices?
Also wondering - horses sold last year were already a few years old. Has there been an increase in breeding in anticipation of the buying spree continuing? Will there be a glut of perhaps not very well bred types in a few years time?

I think there were a few different groups of buyers:

-Riding schools not being able to open encouraged people to buy (not all novices). See also sharers not being allowed on yards.
-Experienced people on furlough buying projects to sell on.
-People who previously had different priorities for their time and money (e.g. travel) deciding to direct that towards horses.

I bought in October and I'd say I was a little of 1) and a little of 3) plus finally being in a financial position to afford a horse. In the past I've always shared or loaned, and preferred to have the freedom to travel etc. Over summer, during lockdown, I decided that this was the year to take the plunge and finally buy as I think it will be quite a while before I will really want to travel again- and it was tough going for months without any interaction with horses at all.

ETA: he is a long term purchase, though and it was something I have wanted to do for a while.

 

[JackFrost]

Reassuring to know many are going to good owners intending long term commitment.

 

[webble]

I am looking at the moment and it's crazy. I've already seen a few advertised as missing sold as suitable for a novice but looking at the pics they really should have been in a riding school still so who knows

 

[Nicnac]

It's not just Covid, Brexit is playing its part, especially with the Irish market. Much more expensive now to import which is reflected in their prices.

 

[SantaVera]

Downward, especially if people loose jobs due to furlough ending and places closing.

 

[SadKen]

I bought my girl a year ago but not for lockdown, I lost my beloved mare to lami the previous September and it took me ages to be ready and then to find one! When I was looking, a sound 7 or 8 YO 15hh Irish going nicely was 10-12k. Couldn't find anything of that type that was sound for less.

I think values may go down slightly, but not much (unless there are issues with the economy and unemployment post furlough) although I do think livery costs will go up. I think a good allrounder that's sound and can do a job is worth 10k all day long, it's just that the value of being able to do stuff like hacking or even riding safely and enjoyably alone has become more evident in the last year. That, plus more disposable income is keeping prices up - as they should be. If good riders, breakers and producers can make decent money by producing good quality, rideable horses for amateurs as opposed to focussing solely on the high value horses that only 20% of riders can actually ride, we can all benefit - including the horses.

 

[AdorableAlice]

With a lovely quality, well educated big horse on the market at the moment I can assure you all there are some serious time wasters out there. Pass me a gin I need it.

 

[Kahlua]

Top quality won’t go down, especially not in dressage. Sale barns such a Helgstrand have taken control of the high end market and are now stepping into the mid-tier bracket, so anything with good breeding will demand a price. I have a time deciding which side of the fence I sit on as the cost to breed, care for, train and compete these horses have gone up and won’t come down because of Covid or Brexit. And why shouldn’t breeders / owners / trainers make some money? We all know even the final sale price will never really make you much, if anything, on what you spend over the years. However a lot of people will get priced out, which means a lot of genuinely good riders will never get the chance, which makes me a bit sad. But this is probably all a whole other conversation ?

 

[SOS]

I get and agree to an extent, with the notion that horses cost a lot to breed, care for, train and compete (not just to Kahlua’s post but to all above and on previous threads) but also there’s a lot of sh*te on the market with either huge gaps in education, poor conformation, unsound or behavioural issues. These horses may of cost as much as one without these issues to bring on but do not deserve the price tag due to the issues they have. Most of which, if not all, caused by the previous owners/breeders.

I guess that’s where these horses would ordinarily be cheaper. My own experiences - a horse that was good quality and evented to 1* had its record and confidence destroyed by a rubbish rider so was in my budget (mid 4s from the previous £20k+) - another had sarcoids so was greatly reduced. Yet currently these horses are the same price as their unflawed counter parts. I think this area of the market, the ‘flawed’ horses will fall dramatically as the economy crashes as those with money won’t be buying rubbish and those without money won’t be buying at all. I’m not saying these horses aren’t perfect for someone, mine were great for me.

I think lockdown has made it much easier to sell horses - people are online more and browsing as they are bored, can show good parts only in videos etc, people have the spare cash floating around, people have loads more time, viewings not allowed, no where to trial horses away from home, gaps in competition records, vettings not being done, transport collecting horses so never see it until it arrives. As someone said before it’s a dodgy dealers paradise.

 

[spotty_pony]

I actually think they will crash. I think the economy is in for a rocky ride as we try to recover from Covid.

I hope you are right - I will most probably be in the market for a new horse next year and that would be a big help!

 

[Kaylum]

We are already seeing the hit from a welfare side. People buying unseen and unvetted horses that can't be ridden and have major health problems.

Once they are found out some aren't prepared to keep the horses and are turning to rescues to help them.

In turn due to covid and the massive extra ask on horse charities the money is just not coming in to help these animals.

 

[Annagain]

With a lovely quality, well educated big horse on the market at the moment I can assure you all there are some serious time wasters out there. Pass me a gin I need it.

Tim? If so, could you pm me the price please AA? He could be just what a friend is looking for - although I suspect may be out of budget.

 

[sport horse]

I think we are seeing the results of a massive drop in breeding numbers a few years ago. Breeders throughout Europe found that horse prices did not cover their production costs and many got out and/or greatly reduced the number of horses in their breeding programmes.