Recession and inflation

[SO1]

I having a conversation with my boss about the inflation and the recession. Thankfully where I work we have enough in reserves to see us through a difficult few years.

So Bank of England predictions are for a couple of years of recession.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63471725.amp

I am sadly horseless at the moment but will look to buy probably next year. The costs of horse keeping at livery is shooting up unless you have a field kept horse but as we all know grass livery is not easy to find in many areas.

The employment market is really hot at the moment but I wonder at what point it will drop and how many organisations will go under as consumers can no longer afford to spend on luxury items.

The RS seems to be a hive of activity. A lot of people seem to be riding there more than once week. The livery part looks full. I suppose a London location does mean there is still going to be people with money due to the financial services sector mainly being here. There are also a lot of uni students riding there.

I went to the pub yesterday and it was really busy.

I think retail is going to be where it starts to bite first most people have enough clothes and home items, jewellery, cosmetics etc to not miss shopping on those items. We probably should not be consuming so much for environmental reasons and buying secondhand if possible but we are a service economy.

 

[Fred66]

I can understand that raising interest rates is a fairly standard and appropriate response to try and get inflation under control.

However I’m not so sure that it is for the current circumstances. The inflation is largely being driven by the war in Ukraine causing a shortfall in supply and therefore an increase in cost of fuel, and other products, most of which are essentials. Combined with a strong dollar against all European currencies then you get significant inflation, the increase in interest rates is going to result in greater pressure on a households budget, but if their budget is going on essentials how does the BoE expect people to reduce their spending?

 

[Bernster]

My OH is closer to this stuff and is worried.

My main livery bill went up 10% so I’m cutting down to cover it - less frequent physio and lessons. Those are still discretionary items I suppose for me, but I feel bad as it directly hits the income of my physio and instructor, so the knock on effect is pretty immediate.

 

[Dexter]

I'm giving serious thought to selling up. I love my horse but Ive given up the 4x4 and trailer due to fuel costs so it all seems a bit pointless now and I'm struggling to justify the cost of it all

 

[alexomahony]

I sold my trailer when my 4x4 failed its MOT... I felt it was a good excuse to downsize my car and its related outgoings. Out livery has gone up twice in the last few months so now that is an extra £20 per month and my feed bill was about £20 extra this time round

My plan is to slightly reduce feed so it lasts a little longer (luckily, they're both good doers!), try keep them living out as long as I can with minimal hay supplemented and sell what equipment I don't need. Due to having no transport, that's automatically reduced competition, training, hunting bills as I only go if I can hitch a lift so for me it's just keeping and enjoying horse ownership in a more basis way and ensuring I'll always have enough to cover the necessities.

It's going to be tough but my horses are my family and there's much more I can lose before I have to rethink horse ownership. And if it gets too pricey, I'm sure I can find a third job... who needs sleep anyway?

 

[JoannaC]

I think there are still a lot of people who have plenty of cash after Covid. I don't do shopping, but we were out the other weekend and fancied a Pizza Express so called in at a local shopping centre (not an affluent area) and it was rammed.

 

[Goldenstar]

I agree with Fred66 that war in Ukraine is the main driver of inflation atm if a settlement can be reached the fuel situation will ease somewhat but the issues with the food supplies will be medium term.
Interest rates have been artificially low for some time and they likely not to return to lows we have seen in the decade or so .
I predict that electricity prices may fall but will stay high as higher prices where built into net zero planning to reduce consumption and encourage changes in behaviour .

I have radically cut spending on my horses I will be spending significantly less this winter it’s false saving though because I am able to do this because MrGS bought a field to help out a friend and that’s given me enough land to hopefully get through the winter on respite stabling only when we get very nasty weather .
I don’t know how it will go .
I have removed Fatties shoes saving £75 every five weeks and reduced outside training although I might put his shoes back on when it’s cold and there’s risk of frost No one is getting any food atm no forage unless they have to
stand in waiting for something , they are getting a balancer .
We are making do with old rugs although I might have to buy one 200 g or a set of decent liners .

 

[PeterNatt]

We have had three major issues beigg Brexid, Covid and the Ukraine and now Global worming. The government has been printing money which effectively devalues the £ against other currencies. This will have a dramatic long term effect on us and I believe that inflation will go up to nearly 20% and interest rates will go up to at least 15% next year. We will all have to tighten our belts.

 

[Abacus]

Pubs and restaurants seem to be struggling in more rural areas and a lot are closing, and others are reducing their opening hours. I read an article about ow much they'd have to increase prices to cope with rising energy costs and supplies, and it was staggering. The article also mentioned how rising food prices proportionally affect the worse off, because there is nothing to trade down to if you're already buying the cheapest ranges. It all seems terribly sad. Personally I am most worried about what my mortgage will go up to next year when I have to renew it, I think it will go up by more than a third. I guess I can stop feeding the children - or would they eat chaff and grass nuts?

 

[sbloom]

We have had three major issues beigg Brexid, Covid and the Ukraine and now Global worming. The government has been printing money which effectively devalues the £ against other currencies. This will have a dramatic long term effect on us and I believe that inflation will go up to nearly 20% and interest rates will go up to at least 15% next year. We will all have to tighten our belts.

The Bank of England have said they don't expect interest rates to go up much more at all, seeing as they can't fight the three biggies, only excess consumer demand, of which there is very little, it's kind of pointless to go to 15%. So why do you think they will go that high when they don't?

 

[criso]

Even here in London cafes and restaurants are struggling. There's a really high turnover near me and on the high road. New food places open and only last a few months. The only constants are Greggs, Costa, Pret and a Weatherspoons.

Lots of empty units of all sorts, shops closing down and a lot of the chains got out a while ago.

Go into a supermarket when the reduced stuff gets priced and people are virtually pushing each other out of the way to get to it.

And 2 new food banks run by churches that i go past on the bus.

 

[Chianti]

We have had three major issues beigg Brexid, Covid and the Ukraine and now Global worming. The government has been printing money which effectively devalues the £ against other currencies. This will have a dramatic long term effect on us and I believe that inflation will go up to nearly 20% and interest rates will go up to at least 15% next year. We will all have to tighten our belts.

I'm glad someone's highlighted Brexit. It's cost us billions in lost trade with the EU.

 

[hollyandivy123]

I'm glad someone's highlighted Brexit. It's cost us billions in lost trade with the EU.

i think our chemical exports have an extra bill of about 2 billion now we are out of the trade block

"THE chemicals sector is facing a staggering £2 billion hit of post-Brexit red tape as the UK sets up its own regulatory regime, twice the cost of initial industry estimates. UK companies previously spent £500 million complying with the Brussels regime over the past decade, winning access to 27 countries "

 

[Chianti]

i think our chemical exports have an extra bill of about 2 billion now we are out of the trade block

"THE chemicals sector is facing a staggering £2 billion hit of post-Brexit red tape as the UK sets up its own regulatory regime, twice the cost of initial industry estimates. UK companies previously spent £500 million complying with the Brussels regime over the past decade, winning access to 27 countries "

I think it was called 'Project Fear'. So many warnings and none of them taken seriously. if we don't do something to improve trade with the EU we'll never recover.

 

[PipsqueakXy22]

personally i have seen a lot more horses on offer for full and part loan now than last year. Im seeing an ad every single dat, when last year i barely saw any. I dont know if its due to lack of time or money now, probably both.

 

[teapot]

The pubs and riding schools will be hit soon enough - I know from people working in the industry saying how it is beginning to get quieter, or regulars who are cutting back. Also know of one big training centre that closed its doors in September and their lessons were reasonably priced for the south! I always used to view how busy we were by regular returning clients - you can be a hive of activity but actually find it's a completely different set of people each week who have cut down from weekly to twice a month.

You'll always have people having two lessons a week, but it's the bread and butter groups that make yards money, and if those get quiet then there will be problems. I'm fully expecting where I ride to put prices up for Jan onwards, but their groups aren't full... I'm getting emails twice a week saying still spaces available on fri/sat/sun. Those are groups taught by BHSI/Stage 5 coaches on decent horses, and in a monied area too.

 

[SO1]

The RS I ride at is really busy. I want a group jumping lesson. It is £70 for 45 minutes they are completely booked up until January that is two months in advance.

I expect I won't be a long term customer as eventually will get a new pony but from the online booking system they seem very busy even during week days when most people are working. They have a big international clientele so perhaps wealthy students.

I wonder though teapot if you are in a wealthy area RS is not used as much as people can afford their own horses.

The pubs and riding schools will be hit soon enough - I know from people working in the industry saying how it is beginning to get quieter, or regulars who are cutting back. Also know of one big training centre that closed its doors in September and their lessons were reasonably priced for the south! I always used to view how busy we were by regular returning clients - you can be a hive of activity but actually find it's a completely different set of people each week who have cut down from weekly to twice a month.

You'll always have people having two lessons a week, but it's the bread and butter groups that make yards money, and if those get quiet then there will be problems. I'm fully expecting where I ride to put prices up for Jan onwards, but their groups aren't full... I'm getting emails twice a week saying still spaces available on fri/sat/sun. Those are groups taught by BHSI/Stage 5 coaches on decent horses, and in a monied area too.

 

[teapot]

The RS I ride at is really busy. I want a group jumping lesson. It is £70 for 45 minutes they are completely booked up until January that is two months in advance.

I expect I won't be a long term customer as eventually will get a new pony but from the online booking system they seem very busy even during week days when most people are working. They have a big international clientele so perhaps wealthy students.

I wonder though teapot if you are in a wealthy area RS is not used as much as people can afford their own horses.

I'm not so sure that's the main reason - I'm talking about somewhere that has very limited competition coaching, horses, and facilities wise, and is well known across the country. I travel a lot of miles to get there. A couple of the people I've ridden with were having lessons on the rs schoolmasters in addition to their own horses, or indeed had actually brought their own horse to the lesson, but most definitely not the majority of clients who I've chatted to. While I'm not that local to it, I know the area well, and it would attract anyone in a very wide area because of quality and standards.

It is very telling that the last few weeks I've had emails saying there is still space. Knowing the place as I do, I would be very surprised if people are not looking at value for money as while it's very very good, there are aspects that could do with improving from the complete client experience point of view. Three months ago those groups were waiting list only, and they use the same booking system that your rs does. I've also seen some of the kids groups on a weekend with only two in, and in my experience of working in the industry, winter lessons tend to be busier than summer lessons, usually... I genuinely think this recession could and potentially will do more damage to the industry than the Covid years financially, and those involved need to become a bit more business minded. People won't go without lunch out, but their kids' riding lessons will be stopped.

A north London centre accessible by tube will have a constantly churning captive audience, again in part because of limited competition, but more importantly niche appeal in a monied city. Uni riding is usually subsidised (KCL riding club members pay under £20 each for a group lesson at said centre) and as a training centre, there will be people making the most of the BHS career fund at the moment as well. Not exactly truly reflective of the rest of the industry, sadly, nor does it mean their finances are safe and secure! Also the constant advertising on Instagram suggests they may not be as busy as they appear to the eye.

As an aside, my local reasonably well off city centre was dead yesterday afternoon... the only place that was busy was the supermarket, where I've noticed far more people shopping within an hour/90mins of closing time, no doubt hoping discounted items will appear.

 

[maggiestar]

I was in Newcastle city centre last week and it was rammed. In the day time the city centre cafes were full at lunchtime, we couldn't find a table for love or money. This was a week day when you would think most people were at work but it was all cheerful and buzzing. What an amazing city. I think as someone else said, there is still quite a bit of money in the economy. I guess the things which are important to us don't feel like luxuries. For instance, I can't afford a horse but I certainly won't go without steak and champagne

 

[criso]

The RS I ride at is really busy. I want a group jumping lesson. It is £70 for 45 minutes they are completely booked up until January that is two months in advance.

I expect I won't be a long term customer as eventually will get a new pony but from the online booking system they seem very busy even during week days when most people are working. They have a big international clientele so perhaps wealthy students.

I wonder though teapot if you are in a wealthy area RS is not used as much as people can afford their own horses.

I wonder if it just represents the size of London and the lack of places to ride in London. Rich overseas students are not going to be typical and you only need a tiny percentage of rich people to add up to a significant number to book out the few establishments left.

Quite a few have closed down especially after lockdown, not all in London but were accessible from London. These represent a range from the cheap and cheerful to the more up market.

 

[teapot]

I wonder if it just represents the size of London and the lack of places to ride in London. Rich overseas students are not going to be typical and you only need a tiny percentage of rich people to add up to a significant number to book out the few establishments left.

Quite a few have closed down especially after lockdown, not all in London but were accessible from London. These represent a range from the cheap and cheerful to the more up market.

The fact that Contessa was one of these says a lot I feel.

 

[Pearlsacarolsinger]

I was in Newcastle city centre last week and it was rammed. In the day time the city centre cafes were full at lunchtime, we couldn't find a table for love or money. This was a week day when you would think most people were at work but it was all cheerful and buzzing. What an amazing city. I think as someone else said, there is still quite a bit of money in the economy. I guess the things which are important to us don't feel like luxuries. For instance, I can't afford a horse but I certainly won't go without steak and champagne
Deleted

 

[Honey08]

We have had three major issues beigg Brexid, Covid and the Ukraine and now Global worming. The government has been printing money which effectively devalues the £ against other currencies. This will have a dramatic long term effect on us and I believe that inflation will go up to nearly 20% and interest rates will go up to at least 15% next year. We will all have to tighten our belts.

Forgive me sniggering at a very sensible post, much of which I agree with, but I’m highly amused by your global worming.

 

[little_critter]

I work in the luxury retail sector, September was noticeably bad for sales. October was better, but probably because we had some big sales on.

 

[gallopingby]

No doubt times are hard for some people but how much scaremongering is due to the TV/Press who seem to like keeping everyone consuming some of the exaggerated reports they manage to fine/makeup.

 

[hollyandivy123]

No doubt times are hard for some people but how much scaremongering is due to the TV/Press who seem to like keeping everyone consuming some of the exaggerated reports they manage to fine/makeup.

perhaps this post shows how much misunderstanding there is between economic brackets?

the differences in the increase of mortgages now have a greater effect than in the 80's due to the differences in amount borrowed

back then it was about 3 times one salary.............now from experience a financial advisor tried to get 2 salaries at nearly 5 times..............!

how much people are going to pay for energy especially those on pay as you go meters

that there are members of our community who once had an ok life, and now are having to make a choice food or heat or new kids shoes

yes some people have got large debt due to credit card borrowing to have that life style..........everything was fine balance which is now tipping in the wrong way

 

[sbloom]

And we have massively reduced public services from back in 1991 when we last hit this sort of situation, though I'd argue it's much more serious now even without that. So there's nothing to fall back on - no state nurseries, little adult care, cash strapped councils unable to offer special help, the NHS at breaking point...it's NOT the press!

 

[criso]

Plus the increase in prices of basics is not made up or fantasy. Inflation takes an average but I'm seeing 30% plus on some basic items.

 

[Dexter]

Plus the increase in prices of basics is not made up or fantasy. Inflation takes an average but I'm seeing 30% plus on some basic items.

Food seems to go up weekly. Its only a few pence, but its a few pence on everything and it makes a big difference.

 

[Orangehorse]

We have had three major issues beigg Brexid, Covid and the Ukraine and now Global worming. The government has been printing money which effectively devalues the £ against other currencies. This will have a dramatic long term effect on us and I believe that inflation will go up to nearly 20% and interest rates will go up to at least 15% next year. We will all have to tighten our belts.

I hope not.