Valuating potential - how do you decide?

madhector

madhector

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Wizoz's post about Boo got me thinking about how we value event/competition horses. Are they worth more as green youngsters than they are with an OKish record? IIs potential more valuable than a 'not perfect' competition record (by this I mean an average amaturs record,some good bits, some not so good bits
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I thought I would do a little experiment, since Blaze as done nothing really yet, thought it would be interesting to get a valuation from you guys now, and then again after a month or 2 of eventing, to see how much his record actually affects his value. (Obviously if he is foot perfect in all his events then this wont be a very good experiment, but I wont care LOL)


So, what is he worth now?

6yr old 15.2hh ISH by Rich Rebel, out of Lowerwood Gypsy
Stupidly bold, genuine and very scopey, moves beautifully
generally just a lovely person with loads of 'potential'
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Really interested as to how this will turn out
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I think the trouble with doing this on here is that the results are skewed by 'popularity' - I am willing to put money on people being ultra-nice about blaze and valuing him pretty highly - not to say he isn't worth that, just that if someone else put up the same thing the answer might be very different.

I think Tigers_Eye and Ben&Jerrys might be the only people on here who actually like my horse, so if I do the same thing I get a result which says my horse is worth next to nothing comparatively speaking LOL!
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I would put money on Blaze being valued higher than my horse was (who has a record, all be it a crappy one which shows he will go clear round Novice tracks even with a half-wit on board....)

It is really interesting as you say....but not necessarily (IMO) for the reasons you think
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I find on here people either value horses excessively high or randomly low - but I guess it is down to personal taste - and the fact that everyone thinks they should be able to sell their horse for a fortune but buy a superstar for about £2.50
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I suspect I have been horribly controversial there and will get shouted at - I hope you don't take this personally because it wasn't meant to be (if that makes any sense at all).
 
Not taken personally at all! lol


Think you made some very valid points, I am always amazed at the difference in values I see on here, and wonder how people come to such different conclusions. You havent taken part in my experiment though
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That is because I am rubbish at valuing horses and just ask Boss and Lec how much they think they are worth. I have managed to buy one ridiculously overpriced horse, sell it for meat money and then spend too much on the one I now have (though to me he is worth every penny, I just did not have that, or indeed any money to spend at the time).

Therefore in future I intend to defer to my trusted advisors as I don't think I am terribly good at buying/valuing/riding/owning/eventing horses
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I know my limits.....
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If he's 7 this year then I think 6k
If he's 6 this year then I think 7k

Yes I do think potential is often priced higher than it should be. It also depends what you class as a good record- I'd regard an 8 year old that had some proven intermediate form (even if it isnt that competitive yet) higher than one that had been winning PNs and hadnt gone any further.
The record doesnt tell the full story but it's everyone's first port of call.
 
I couldn't agree more SC. As someone put earlier, a horse is worth whatever someone is prepared to give you for it and by that we mean cash in the bank, not just vague offers of such and such an amount.

I had a big offer for William Hill many years ago as he was qualified for the Europeans and a foreign rider wanted him with that in mind.: I said no, they came back with an offer increased by 50% and I still said no. They wanted him and valued him at that, I didn't want to sell him, so you could say he was, albeit momentarily, "worth" that amount, but as I didn't sell him I'll never know. He could have failed the vet or broken a leg before they bought him.
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I had a big offer for William Hill many years ago as he was qualified for the Europeans and a foreign rider wanted him with that in mind.: I said no, they came back with an offer increased by 50% and I still said no. They wanted him and valued him at that, I didn't want to sell him, so you could say he was, albeit momentarily, "worth" that amount, but as I didn't sell him I'll never know. He could have failed the vet or broken a leg before they bought him.
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Agree with you there - some idiot person offered me 8k for Jerry which we all know he wasnt worth! But at that moment in time he was, 2 months later he was worth nothing at all and was happily retired at the grand old age of 7 but hey ho!
 
agree Re; spottedcat
I would say( on rubbish at valuations!) 5K ish as he is quite pretty etc. and does the job but if I recall is maybe a tad too sensitive for a straight amateur?
 
he's worth whatever someone else is prepared to pay for him! His breeding's trendy but he's quite small, which limits the market, so i'd say he's worth £5-6k. If he goes out and loves the job and gets good results, i'd expect that to go up a lot.
Raw potential is worth a lot more than one with experience and a slightly dodgy record, imho. People pay ridiculous amounts for untried 3 and 4 yr olds, with no guarantee at all that they'll like the job and have a real aptitude, etc.
Re: prices, when I bought the grey mare in my siggy as a 6 yr old, I was offered double what I paid for her the week after... to go SJing in Germany, by someone who specifically wanted mares that really jumped. Sometimes it's just being in the right place at the right time. I kept her and have no regrets, although it would have been nice to have made an instant profit!
 
I think Blaze looks fab with his flat work and really scopey jumping and is a good age to go out and prove himself. I think you could sell him over and over again at £5k. For the person who really clicked with him they might pay more at this stage.

The difference with an older horse is you ask yourself why havent they already proven themselves and the answer could be a whole myriad of things and absolutely genuine! However when you try something you have a snapshot in which to make a decision and the age/record comparison speaks volumes when weighing up on limited information.
 
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he's worth whatever someone else is prepared to pay for him! His breeding's trendy but he's quite small, which limits the market, so i'd say he's worth £5-6k. If he goes out and loves the job and gets good results, i'd expect that to go up a lot.

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But often the people that will pay large amounts are the little PC kids who need a first horse. It may only go up to PN but that is all they want from it. (That isn't a personal comment surrounding the horse in question)
 
So basically everyone is pointing out that "value" can mean the price asked or it can mean the price paid - which can be radically different. You have to factor in if/how he vets, how he rides (and does he suit the person down to the ground or just somewhat), how he is to keep etc. etc. etc. (By the way, no offence, but you've also publicised that the horse is, at least currently, hard to keep. If I, as a buyer, asked you straight out does he weave/box walk/stress out, you'd have to give me a straight answer and that might make him worth less to me than a similar horse that's super simple to keep and takes every situation with a smile. Same with the knowledge he can buck to a degree someone like yourself feels worthy of comment.
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And, as SC said, it's not just record, it's record doing what, with whom. I'd likely value a small horse more if it's gone with a kid/amateur, at least once, as that's likely to be the target market.

The reason people pay big money for very young horses is horse people are optimists . . . or delusional, depending on your perspective. At that point very little has been asked so very few problems have shown up, or at least if they are visible they take an experienced eye to see. Someone used to looking at loads of babies will likely weight things differently than someone with mostly older horse experience but the former are almost never the people spending the money! Even better if the horse can't yet be ridden, as then the buyer can't tell if it won't suit.
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I find most people put a great deal of faith in their own ability to improve things, although I'd have to say, the more experience one has, the more realistic one tends to get about what's fixable/trainable/manageable.

I know, I'm no fun.
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So if you're asking what price to put on his head . . . he's cute, looks a nice mover/jumper from the photos, perhaps a little sensitive but bold. You could ASK 7/8k and get away with it, maybe expecting to deal a bit from there. (Which I'm guessing your sellers built in to the original asking price too.) BUT if I brought someone to see him (I'd need roller skates to ride him myself.
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) I'd want to see him ride well for that because there are lots of horses of his type that are also uncomplicated to ride. So if that's likely to be an issue I'd say a slightly lower price, with the provision he'd not do for anyone.

Someone I know just bought a horse for 15k, 7 yrs old, looks and rides very talented (not top class but not too far off) but perhaps a bit on the sharp side, has done limited showing but placed well every time. I had to laugh as the original price was 25k BUT the minute the seller thought there was a live buyer they dropped 10k off the price! Now the buyer thinks she got the bargoon of the century. I had to admire the nerve and hey, it worked.
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Thanks for the reply - very interesting points
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I think he would suit a junior, but they would have to click with him as he needs someone with very light hands. The Box walking is a problem too, although again in a busy yard he would be fine.


The buck is quite big though
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I think I paid a fair price for him, although if I had had the money I would have paid upto 7K for him as he suits me down to the ground, but I didnt so fortuently they took 5k
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It is so hard as it is so subjective I suppose...will be interesting to see peoples values after a few events
 
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