Why can't they get the forecast right?!!!

[L&M]

Yesterday there was a severe weather warning for our area, potentially 5-10cm snow overnight, so being 'responsible' horse owners, all the horses were in by 4pm tucking into their haylage. (Ours mainly live out but their winter grazing is on a steep slope, and can be lethal underfoot if we get 'wet' snow, so bring them in to err on the side of caution.)

I woke up this morning to not a flake of snow, but at least could turn them all back out and give a sigh if relief. The weather warning said all the snow would have passed over by mid morning, so though we were in the clear.

However it started snowing heavily at 2.00pm, 50p size flakes and showing no sign of stopping, so off to trudge across the fields to get the horses back in!

In this day and age of modern technology, you would think they could get the blooming forecast right!!!

Sorry just had to rant…...

 

[blitznbobs]

Telling the future will always be a difficult act --- that butterfly in Australia probably flapped its wings...

 

[Spring Feather]

It's because you live on a little island with a great big ocean on one side and sea on all the other sides. Where I live it's easier for the forecasters to predict (fairly accurately) what will happen as they are tracking weather patterns across vast expanses of land.

 

[supsup]

It is impossible (literally) to accurately forecast the weather (or anything, for that matter). What they generally don't tell you is that there are two types of forecasts: "deterministic" forecasts, which are like a best, most accurate guess. The further out the forecast, the more likely it will be wrong. The other type is a "probabilistic" forecast, which consists of many (lesser quality) forecasts all run at the same time, with slightly different starting conditions. It's like putting that butterfly flapping into the forecast, and watching what that leads to. This type of forecast will tell you how likely an event is to occur. If all variations of the model agree - very likely. If they all tell you something different - the situation is unpredictable, and the forecast you're given is likely to turn out wrong. That is the information you really want, and that a normal forecast (especially if you're working off an app with little symbols) isn't likely to give you.
You're more likely to find good info on a webpage (Metoffice, BBC weather). It can also be helpful to look at the animated precip forecast on e.g. the MetOffice page. If the snow/rain is very localized, there's a pretty good chance that it may miss you after all - just common sense. Better luck next time!
... from a professional weather person (who also happens to be the "what should I do with my rug" adviser on the yard).