Doris68
Well-Known Member
Sorry if this is in the wrong place.... but are there any 'tipsters' out there who might give some hints on an each way bet for Saturday?
Grand National tips??
- Thread starter Doris68
- Start date
hadfos
Well-Known Member
has to be the only race every yr were luck is the only factor
I have done the form....ground,previous outings etc etc...has it worked,lmao...like hell
Am on rubys horse,and then whatever is below 30-1,goes on firmer ground and has a nice name,lol
...be nice to see war of attrition do well,but have alot of doubts,due to his past injuries
The one thing that sticks out this yr.....if they dont mess with the ground you can rule the mud lovers out
I have done the form....ground,previous outings etc etc...has it worked,lmao...like hell
The one thing that sticks out this yr.....if they dont mess with the ground you can rule the mud lovers out
Doris68
Well-Known Member
Yup, I know what you mean, that's my normal way of picking em.....but I just thought it was worth a punt to ask!
Grey_Eventer
Well-Known Member
ill ask my builder as hes very clued up on this... hes always winning money so ill report back in a bit!
Fantasy_World
Well-Known Member
The Aintree Grand National is the only jump race I believe you cannot truly predict as there are simply too many imponderables. All you can do is pick a few out and hope for the best.
The only advice I would offer is this.
Pick a horse carrying between 10 and 11 stone, or if out of the handicap ( usually states on racecard at the bottom) then make sure they are no more than 7lbs out so would carry 9-7 if carrying true weight.
Horses carrying above 11stone no matter how classy they are rarely win. But horses carrying that weight and above do get placed so if you do fancy one carrying that weight then make sure you back it each way. Most bookmakers pay out on the first 4 only but a couple will pay out for five places but the odds will be a little worse than the other bookmakers ( but you are getting an extra place).
Luck plays a vital part in the race. You could be on the best form horse in the race only for it to be brought down or carried out by a dodgy jumper or when horses refuse.
Make sure it goes on the official going. True soft ground horses rarely if ever win the Aintree National. Mainly for two reasons. Most horses that require soft ground do so because of conformation issues or existing or previous injuries. Also many are true sloggers and that is why you very rarely see a horse which has won a handicap slog in the mud at places like Haydock for example, winning the National. Why because they are too slow. Most winter long distance chases are run at an acceptable speed, whereas the National is all go from the off. Many horses are too keen, jockeys too eager to get out in front to avoid trouble in behind. You also get two miler types in the race which help to set a fast pace as they are used to racing over a trip more than half that of the National so the first part of the race especially can be very fast especially if the ground is riding fast. Only when Red Marauder won ( luckily I backed it) did they go a steady pace on the rain softened ground.
Comply or Die broke a few trends last year in coming from the Northern National ( former Eider chase) to score at Aintree. However the ground that day was pretty good ( usually been a slog in most cases) and he did carry top weight so was an above average winner of the race. But usually avoid horses that have been slogging around in the long distance chases that season.
Better races to concentrate on is that season's and previous year's Becher chase ( but don't be fooled by soft ground specialists as they will get outpaced if good or faster), the previous year(s) Grand National, Topham chase ( both will have provided experience for the horses over the national fences), Chelt gold cup, that year's Hennessy at Newbury ( including horses out of the frame, Red Marauder was 5th for example) and the previous year's Irish National which is where most of the Irish trained winners have come from.
Don't back novices and avoid second season chasers unless they have huge amounts of talent and experience in big field ( second season means they were a novice the previous year).
Pick horses and trainers that are in form. If a horse has failed to win that season it doesn't totally rule it out if there have been genuine excuses for its defeats. But usually I try and stick with those with at least placed form that season.
Don't be put off by runners who have had hurdle runs that season too. Trainers do this for three reasons. Get them fit, preserve a handicap mark and to make them jump cleaner and faster. A chaser usually finds it more difficult to jump a hurdle cleaner as it is lower to the ground and most hurdle races are usually a bit quicker than chases anyway so it gets them a bit more pacey which they need for the National.
Avoid dodgy jumpers if at all possible. Again depends on the situation as some falls can be due to being unsighted ( sun) or else confusion at a jump due to loose horses and other fallers etc. So make sure you read the form properly.
Experience of big fields is a help too. A horse must be able to cope with being short of room, avoiding other horses ( fallers) etc. A bigger field also tends to mean a true run race as well which brings jumping and stamina into play. Small fields are mostly falsely run with the pace setter setting a sedate pace to make others waste energy by pulling and then resulting in a sprint finish. If you can get access to section times of a race this can be important as it helps you to understand how the race was run.
Stamina is a key issue. I don't tend to back horses that have not had winning form over at least 3m 1f of 3m 2f. You can occasionally get 2 milers being placed in a National, think the most well known was Blowing Wind trained by Martin Pipe.
I think that is it lol. I have not studied the race in full as yet for this year as been too busy. Only bet I do have is My Will at 20/1 whom I backed on Gold Cup day before he ran as I knew if he ran well in Gold Cup his odds for National would tumble. He is a horse I have always liked though and have followed in the past. There are many in the race which I don't fancy but I have yet to pick out any real contenders beside my ante post bet and won't do usually until the evening before as I prefer to see what the ground is like and how Cheltenham form figures as well as reading up on the most up to date information on the runners. As we all know horses ourselves anyway I think it is fair to say that you cannot expect a horse to run well if it has been off colour leading up to the race or hasn't travelled or eaten up etc so it is vital that you keep up to date with any news via the media in the last few days before the race.
Good luck everyone
Caz
The only advice I would offer is this.
Pick a horse carrying between 10 and 11 stone, or if out of the handicap ( usually states on racecard at the bottom) then make sure they are no more than 7lbs out so would carry 9-7 if carrying true weight.
Horses carrying above 11stone no matter how classy they are rarely win. But horses carrying that weight and above do get placed so if you do fancy one carrying that weight then make sure you back it each way. Most bookmakers pay out on the first 4 only but a couple will pay out for five places but the odds will be a little worse than the other bookmakers ( but you are getting an extra place).
Luck plays a vital part in the race. You could be on the best form horse in the race only for it to be brought down or carried out by a dodgy jumper or when horses refuse.
Make sure it goes on the official going. True soft ground horses rarely if ever win the Aintree National. Mainly for two reasons. Most horses that require soft ground do so because of conformation issues or existing or previous injuries. Also many are true sloggers and that is why you very rarely see a horse which has won a handicap slog in the mud at places like Haydock for example, winning the National. Why because they are too slow. Most winter long distance chases are run at an acceptable speed, whereas the National is all go from the off. Many horses are too keen, jockeys too eager to get out in front to avoid trouble in behind. You also get two miler types in the race which help to set a fast pace as they are used to racing over a trip more than half that of the National so the first part of the race especially can be very fast especially if the ground is riding fast. Only when Red Marauder won ( luckily I backed it) did they go a steady pace on the rain softened ground.
Comply or Die broke a few trends last year in coming from the Northern National ( former Eider chase) to score at Aintree. However the ground that day was pretty good ( usually been a slog in most cases) and he did carry top weight so was an above average winner of the race. But usually avoid horses that have been slogging around in the long distance chases that season.
Better races to concentrate on is that season's and previous year's Becher chase ( but don't be fooled by soft ground specialists as they will get outpaced if good or faster), the previous year(s) Grand National, Topham chase ( both will have provided experience for the horses over the national fences), Chelt gold cup, that year's Hennessy at Newbury ( including horses out of the frame, Red Marauder was 5th for example) and the previous year's Irish National which is where most of the Irish trained winners have come from.
Don't back novices and avoid second season chasers unless they have huge amounts of talent and experience in big field ( second season means they were a novice the previous year).
Pick horses and trainers that are in form. If a horse has failed to win that season it doesn't totally rule it out if there have been genuine excuses for its defeats. But usually I try and stick with those with at least placed form that season.
Don't be put off by runners who have had hurdle runs that season too. Trainers do this for three reasons. Get them fit, preserve a handicap mark and to make them jump cleaner and faster. A chaser usually finds it more difficult to jump a hurdle cleaner as it is lower to the ground and most hurdle races are usually a bit quicker than chases anyway so it gets them a bit more pacey which they need for the National.
Avoid dodgy jumpers if at all possible. Again depends on the situation as some falls can be due to being unsighted ( sun) or else confusion at a jump due to loose horses and other fallers etc. So make sure you read the form properly.
Experience of big fields is a help too. A horse must be able to cope with being short of room, avoiding other horses ( fallers) etc. A bigger field also tends to mean a true run race as well which brings jumping and stamina into play. Small fields are mostly falsely run with the pace setter setting a sedate pace to make others waste energy by pulling and then resulting in a sprint finish. If you can get access to section times of a race this can be important as it helps you to understand how the race was run.
Stamina is a key issue. I don't tend to back horses that have not had winning form over at least 3m 1f of 3m 2f. You can occasionally get 2 milers being placed in a National, think the most well known was Blowing Wind trained by Martin Pipe.
I think that is it lol. I have not studied the race in full as yet for this year as been too busy. Only bet I do have is My Will at 20/1 whom I backed on Gold Cup day before he ran as I knew if he ran well in Gold Cup his odds for National would tumble. He is a horse I have always liked though and have followed in the past. There are many in the race which I don't fancy but I have yet to pick out any real contenders beside my ante post bet and won't do usually until the evening before as I prefer to see what the ground is like and how Cheltenham form figures as well as reading up on the most up to date information on the runners. As we all know horses ourselves anyway I think it is fair to say that you cannot expect a horse to run well if it has been off colour leading up to the race or hasn't travelled or eaten up etc so it is vital that you keep up to date with any news via the media in the last few days before the race.
Good luck everyone
Caz
teapot
Well-Known Member
War of Attitition isn't running anymore
Think it could be a different type of race this year as there's a new rule that if a horse or jockey is down, they can miss a fence so technically means Bechers may only be jumped once this year!
I'd have money on Ruby Walsh, Tony McCoy and then a random one - the only grey, the only mare etc
Think it could be a different type of race this year as there's a new rule that if a horse or jockey is down, they can miss a fence so technically means Bechers may only be jumped once this year!
I'd have money on Ruby Walsh, Tony McCoy and then a random one - the only grey, the only mare etc
Scribbles
Well-Known Member
Stuff all that - you go for the one with the best name
hence why we won last year
Fantasy_World
Well-Known Member
I suppose it depends on whether or not you are a true racing fan or one of those oh let's have a flutter on the grand national type. You know the one's that normally get themselves pissed at the races, wearing skirts up to their arse and showing off their boobs. I know not all women who have a go on the National fit it into that category but a lot in my opinion do.
You can win and you can also lose backing by that method. But if you want to give yourself any real chance of winning the race then you need to do your homework.
Picking a horse just by it's name, colour, trainer, jockey is just daft ( but each to their own I suppose). It is certainly not a way to tip horses in the race though is it. If you want try and pick the winner then follow trends in the race. The reason those trends occur is because they were the horses in the race that mostly had either the stats to win, or else luck on their side. I know luck does play a part in it and I have lost on horses with good chances who have been brought to a standstill by loose horses etc. But I have also won the race a great many times since first backing in the race as a 12 year old ( some 25 years ago). At first, yeah it was by name, as I doubt many 12 year old's would be able to read form. Then it was by trainer and jockey, as I followed Jenny Pitman a lot as a teenager. Finally I started to read form and did my homework and as a result backed more winners in the race than I had ever done just by name picking and following trainers etc.
The one piece of advice I would give though is if you fancy more than one, then back them. Don't think you only have to back one in the race. There are usually 40 runners in the race and anything can happen. Not all are there to make up the numbers. Usually at least ten or so have a fighting chance so it is up to people having a 'proper' bet to choose those with the best chances on paper.
You can win and you can also lose backing by that method. But if you want to give yourself any real chance of winning the race then you need to do your homework.
Picking a horse just by it's name, colour, trainer, jockey is just daft ( but each to their own I suppose). It is certainly not a way to tip horses in the race though is it. If you want try and pick the winner then follow trends in the race. The reason those trends occur is because they were the horses in the race that mostly had either the stats to win, or else luck on their side. I know luck does play a part in it and I have lost on horses with good chances who have been brought to a standstill by loose horses etc. But I have also won the race a great many times since first backing in the race as a 12 year old ( some 25 years ago). At first, yeah it was by name, as I doubt many 12 year old's would be able to read form. Then it was by trainer and jockey, as I followed Jenny Pitman a lot as a teenager. Finally I started to read form and did my homework and as a result backed more winners in the race than I had ever done just by name picking and following trainers etc.
The one piece of advice I would give though is if you fancy more than one, then back them. Don't think you only have to back one in the race. There are usually 40 runners in the race and anything can happen. Not all are there to make up the numbers. Usually at least ten or so have a fighting chance so it is up to people having a 'proper' bet to choose those with the best chances on paper.
Scribbles
Well-Known Member
You say that, but we still won last year. My methods are flawless.
[ QUOTE ]
Picking a horse just by it's name, colour, trainer, jockey is just daft
[/ QUOTE ]
Or... a bit of fun. I'd rather have a bit of fun and take it all light-hearted, than find myself in the bookies tearing up paper every weekend "Oh I'm sure not everyone fits into that category but most do".
[ QUOTE ]
Picking a horse just by it's name, colour, trainer, jockey is just daft
[/ QUOTE ]
Or... a bit of fun. I'd rather have a bit of fun and take it all light-hearted, than find myself in the bookies tearing up paper every weekend "Oh I'm sure not everyone fits into that category but most do".