Hay surplus 2011 / 2012 !!!

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lamehorse

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i was talking to a well respected " horse person " yesterday , and he said that there are going to be half the number of foals born this year and that a lot of people who kept " pet " horses i.e. old , lame etc had them pts. also that a lot have gone and are still going to slaughter. HOWEVER he said , every farmer and his dog are land grabbing for hay and haylage this year, as they now think it is a money spinner and worth the effort doing it . SO more hay less horses ! he said even it its a bad hay year the amount produced will be more as there is more land being used for it. therefore there is going to be a hay surplus for the next 2 years at least. is he right ? what do you guys think.
 
He's brave predicting this early. Although I hope he's right, it'll be the quality of hay people will look for in that case. Certainly on my farm there are no plans to land grab and produce more hay. A farm near us has just been sold and produced good hay as it wasn't grazed, now I think sheep and cattle are going on as well as some land planted for beet so we'll have to look further afield for ours. I guess it will be different for everyone.

Interesting though :D
 
Our feed merchant today told us he has suppliers dropping their prices left, right and centre and constantly phoning and asking if he wants any more! He has even dropped his hay prices to sell to us (lovely lovely people) and has said he has no cap on how much he can buy in now and so feel free to order as much as you like :). I think some of this "hay shortage" is just to boost prices and work up a hype about hay. IMO I dont think the prices will ever drop that much around us (herts/london) even if there is a surplus - farmers just jump on the bandwagon and shift their prices up to get maximum profit (fair enough) and a lot now have a surplus (2 of my suppliers did stop selling to us though so not all!!). But as I said that IMO! :)
 
Whatever the true hay situation, come December, there'll be a "shortage" to ensure our gratitude as the prices go up!
 
Every hay/haylage supplier I've spoken to (Berks, Hants, Oxon, Devon) has said they are increasing their acreage this year just in case.
 
My hay supplier increased his acreage last year as had run out previous year. But still ran out this year. There are just more and more people keeping horses so hay is in more demand in my area. Im sure some old / unused horses will have gone and less foals born, but i think more people keeping their own now instead of going to riding schools. Would love there to be a hay surplus in next few years, but doubt it and im sure prices wont shrink that much even if there is. I know people who have their orders in for this years cuts already, so farmers may be planting more to take into account these extra customers on top of regulars.
 
Snowysadude give me the number of your feed merchant! Around my way hay is still quite hard to come by and our YO is putting his prices up right now!
 
Yes, we have decided to cut for hay from more acreage than last year, but to say there is going to be surplus is quite premature. We won't know how good a crop we will get, and then even if it's a bumper, we have no reserves left so will have to start feeding new season hay straight away. Due to snow and generally harsh weather, we had to bring the stock indoors early - that means tons and tons of forage going down their bellies, the cattle are still in and will be for a while, because although warm, the grass isn't there yet.
We are also at the moment heading for a bit of a draught, fields are fertilised, but apart from some clay-ish ground we have, there isn't enough moisture for a proper growth spurt.
Also, fertiliser has reached over £300 per tonne in places, diesel prices are going through the roof etc, so the price of hay won't drop significantly even if the crop is good.
In my area farmers are pressed to put more sugar beet down, due to last winters disaster and resultant sugar shortages, the grains are better in price as well, making it much more attractive to farm them.
 
Sorry to put the doom and gloom on the gorgeous weather we are experiencing for the past few weeks but if it doesn't rain soon we are not going to have a decent hay crop again this year.

I hope there are loads of people growing the stuff because the prognosis could be poor!!

My YO cuts his own hay - he has nearly run out and is putting is prices up because everyone else has. He will then have to buy in and will put the prices up again!

Does anyone know of a good hay supplier in the South Bucks area that can supply hay delivered for £4 a bale??
 
Hmm - don't hold your breath for a hay 'surplus'.

Just where exactly are these people 'land grabbing' from?? Round here all agricultural land is occupied and in use, no one is turning arable over to grass - and even if they did they wouldn't get a crop of hay off it this year, and there are still the same amount of livestock to graze so unless someone can 'magic up' some land from somewhere then it ain't gonna happen.

Prices may drop a little after this years crop but would like to bet it's not much if at all!
 
Far too early to predict a surplus but big bale hay is now fetching £15 at auction here and straw £9. All of the profiteers are desparately trying to shift what they were hanging onto trying to make a killing. Rough justice for them but I suppose what goes around comes around.
 
In my neck of the woods hay gives (by FAR) the smallest return on investment and profit. Only a foolish farmer or a horse person would be silly enough to put land into hay. I do ... and I know what that says about me :D
 
I cannot see how anybody can predict even before the hay is cut!

Last year due to dry conditions it did not grow and thicken like normal years so the yield was low.

Until we see what the weather is going to do then who will know if we get good/poor yields again this year.

We grow our own and can never predict how many bales we will get.
 
mcnaughty said:
Sorry to put the doom and gloom on the gorgeous weather we are experiencing for the past few weeks but if it doesn't rain soon we are not going to have a decent hay crop again this year.

I hope there are loads of people growing the stuff because the prognosis could be poor!!

My YO cuts his own hay - he has nearly run out and is putting is prices up because everyone else has. He will then have to buy in and will put the prices up again!

Does anyone know of a good hay supplier in the South Bucks area that can supply hay delivered for £4 a bale??
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Well I am in France and our hay yields were 40% of normal last summer due to long drought. We will thankfully get two days of rain this weekend which we desperately need both for grazing and hay.

We have two of our own fields down for hay but are buying in another 10 tons. The farmer we buy from has sold all his hay already not yet cut and we won't cut till end of May.
 
Mrs_Wishkabibble said:
I cannot see how anybody can predict even before the hay is cut!

Last year due to dry conditions it did not grow and thicken like normal years so the yield was low.

Until we see what the weather is going to do then who will know if we get good/poor yields again this year.

We grow our own and can never predict how many bales we will get.
Click to expand...

The problem we have in this region of France is that the barns are all empty. We all need to feed hay from July to September when we have no grass. That is why hay is being sold before it is cut.
 
We are forecast a wet week here next week so hopefully that will help avoid what happened last year. We have just got our last haylage bales delivered and are determined not to buy any more this year, they will be moving onto the 15 acres of decent grass when they have got through them. YO has given us enough hay for mare and foal as they are in at night and will be for a few months so hopefully we are sorted till next winter. Our supplier ran out of big bale hay only a few weeks ago so it was nowhere near as bad as was predicted this winter, he still has plenty of haylage but has put the price up, and straw has almost doubled in price for a big bale. I can't see the prices ever coming down much but TBH we are still paying pretty much the same for a small bale as we were paying 5 years ago from our YO, and less than from feed merchants then, whilst it may not be good for us as owners it has to be better for those farmers who produce it. It will be interesting to see though if those who tried to make too much money end up stuck with a surplus for their greed!!
 
last yr we had hay cut from both our rented fields. 2 acres of it (52 bales) were for us and the other just over 2 acres (at a guess around 60 bales) was for the farmer.
This year, apparently the farmer doesnt want the hay off that field so we were thinking of still doing hay and then keeping 60 or so bales for us (we nearly ran out this year) and then selling the rest but thing is we dont have any place to store the extra so dont really wanna be stuck with it. if we dont take the hay off the other field it'll just be used for grazing.

hmmm something to think about.
 
I have been VERY lucky this year in finding a supplier who was willing to supply me not only all the hay I needed, but at a very very reasonable price (seeing how hay reached £10 a small bale our way!)
Because of that, I shall be buying from him from now on, regardless of whether it goes up or down in price elsewhere.
 
Hi,

I'm new to here so here's my first post,

Hay, we produce hay on our farm and I can say that we have experienced a shortage.

No, we are not money grabbing nor trying to cause hype.

The real truth is hay is very dependent on the weather.

This dry early on can slow down good growth for the obvious reasons, and then if we have a wet summer than having the grass cut and laying in wet is not going to produce anything.

We cut our first harvest in end May start of June, and planned a second late August early September time, but given the weather this didn't happen.
We took the chance on what appeared to be a reasonable forecast week, but the crop was ruined on the ground.

We had the machinery time/expense cutting and then the machinery time and expense to sort out the ruined crop lying on the ground. All time and expense that we see now revenue from, but that is the risk of farming in very basic terms.

No one can forecast the likely outcome so long as no one has absolute control over the weather, but I am sure alot of farmers like us watch the weather patterns and do our best to achieve a crop.

Buyers may panic buy thei rhay this year, in fear of being stuck.

We have our own animals to feed (horse etc...) so our first crop will be to make sure we have sufficent for them. If we achieve a second crop successfully then we will sell this.

Feed costs as with our own food have been impacted by wheat issues and other factors, I think crop difficulties are likely to be something we experience more of in the future globally, and prices are also started to be affected by commodity buyers who can affect the supply and price enormously, a market they previously didn't enter into much is becoming a profit hunting ground, without consideration that these crops are core essentials for many.

So, in all, I think it's way too early to say, and our farm like many we know are not land grabbing, so elsewhere may perhaps see an opportunity, but those with a structured approach to their input/output are not likely to jump on such a risk.
 
When you have been in farming for a while you get to know that it is either too wet, too dry, too hot, too cold, there is either too much or to little, everyone wants it or there is no demand.

So basically whatever you need to buy, it will cost you more. lol.
 
you know he just could be on to something , theres loads of ads for hay and its getting cheaper. quite a few for £3.00 , £3.25 , £4.00 . :)
 
following on from the " are there less horses about thread " from a few comments about less horses and not buying so much hay it seems that maybe the predictions could be right ! it would be interesting to know. our yard has been asked several times if we need hay ( we have a supplier already ) when before the yo was phoning round trying to find some ! how are you all finding it ?
 
Last year my supplier was bringing in a load of rubbish Haylage and I found some beautiful haylage at an auction - I paid £40 a bale for it but there was not a seed left. Plus getting it carted.
I ordered a load from the same farmer and he refused to budge on price. I had one load delivered and it is not as good as last years (good but not 5* ) Found some other better first cut, no nitrogen, (as was the other above) for £25 a bale delivered in.
As we use a bale every other day, it makes a big difference.
In N. Dorset there seems to be some good stuff around and at a fair price.
 
I am in Kent and still have 200 small bales to sell. It's barn stored and I have advertised it but no takers yet so people can't be short....
 
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