Horse market

[Limbo1]

Is it going to crash?

With the cost of living going up will lots of people sell?? Not want to buy? Or will the lifestyle changes covid brought endure?

 

[Red-1]

I am guessing crash, but not until winter.

We are comfortable for money compared to many, and still feeling the pinch, having to change habits to cut our cloth. I have no idea how many people are going to manage.

 

[Mrs. Jingle]

I don't want it to exactly crash in fairness to breeders and producers, but I would like the crazy prices to come down somewhat by the winter, in case I find myself in a fit state to ride again. Right now I fear I am priced right out of the market for the sort I would be looking for, as are many other people I'm sure.

 

[Baroque]

It's hard to imagine it NOT crashing, given the seemingly never-ending assault to our finances right now, much of which will not improve for some time. Among my circle of friends there's not a single one, myself included, who isn't already making changes to the way we keep our horses to help save money. When winter heating costs are back in the mix, plus hay and feed prices under enormous pressure where will the money come from to support the current high prices?

 

[Limbo1]

I think you guys are right. I am starting to look for my daughter and am torn between her desire to have something sooner to progress and beable to compete this autumn/winter and waiting for prices to come down. This could be 6 months away!

 

[Goldie's mum]

Are prices usually higher in spring than autumn?

 

[honetpot]

Like anything quality always sells, but I think it will be a smaller market, I was thinking about this yesterday.
As I would say I was at the every day PC low level competition end with two children, how do you justify the expense of going to events for one or two classes, when your entry fee is £15, and then you have fuel and everything else on top.I will not take anything to the breed show because I just can not justify the cost for one class. If I had small children I could perhaps justify a trip to a small local show, where they can do a variety of things, that's if you could afford the pony in the first place.
If you are looking at £250 a month livery, that for some families will break the budget.
Looking at the thread about BE value for money is already a big issue. You have got your nice horse, do you just stay local and do different things a local centres, rather than spend more on BE?
Then there is transport. The price of an older second hand trailer went up by about a £1000-£1500, you need a fairly big car to tow it, and now diesel is almost £2 a litre, and unless its a second car you are using it every day.
I have a dumped feral pony from the winter of 2012, looking at some of the ads on preloved the prices of small ponies are already falling, and old horses are being moved on, its June.

 

[Gloi]

I think the big drop will come when mortgage rates start increasing with inflation and the people who have been reasonably comfortable will start having to fork out more each month. I remember the 80s when I was buying my house and the rate went up to 15% taking nearly all my wages.

 

[The Irish Draft 2022]

To be honest I don't think it’s going to happen anytime soon i say it won’t happen to spring 2023 . People won’t sell straightaway they will wait and hope the prices will come down. When they realize they aren’t going down loads will sell but I say it not going to happen till 2023 .

 

[SO1]

I think there is still plenty of money around and the people who can afford a 10K + horse as they are high net worth individuals will still be in that situation next year probably.

The sound safe competitive all rounder will still command a good price. The money is with middle aged women who are often in senior roles and can afford something nice for themselves or their children.

Dressage also has become popular with WAGs and trust fund kids as it is seen as glamorous.

I think prices will fall for youngsters, veterans and anything that is quirky or has medical issues or needs special management. The cost of keeping horses is going up and I think that may put people off taking risks. If you have to retire your horse it still costs a lot of money.

I think people won't run second horses alongside retired horses and may not replace a horse that has been PTS. I don't think any of the liveries on our yard would replace their horses.

 

[asmp]

Looking at the local site, the horses seems reasonable now but the people are still are asking ridiculous prices for ponies. Whether they actually sell who knows.

 

[millitiger]

I think the high end will stay high as there still isnt an endless supply of real quality horses.
Also If you're dropping £15-20k+ on a horse, I assume you have reasonable equity in your house, a secure income and aren't concerned about the energy hike anyway... maybe not!

I think the lower end could drop out, with the squeeze on living expenses.

I was considering a 3rd horse, I'm now waiting to see how my bills look in 6 months time, with hay/straw/fuel/electric, first and then will decide

 

[PeterNatt]

Next year will be interesting as I would suggets that inflation will go up to 22% and interest rates up to 17%.

 

[Squeak]

I’ve heard a few people saying they’ve used credit cards or loans to buy horses recently so I don’t think the people who are buying 10k+ horses will be above the cost of living squeeze.

 

[gallopingby]

Well bred and well produced horses and ponies are still in short supply and impossible to find especially amongst some of the rare breeds. Prices will not reduce whilst they’re in short supply and as has been said many times recently the price for a nicely bred well educated animal is about right at the moment. Try working out the cost of production at an hourly rate until five or six years. I think there will be problems for the low end coloured cobs who are now ten a penny and haven’t been properly bred/educated/ fed, it’s a shame that some people will no longer be able to afford to keep a horse but maybe they’ll look at other ways to have contact with them and in the process assist the welfare debate by either working or volunteering at education centres?

 

[throwawayaccount]

I wonder if horse ownership may have the divide again, being for the rich only. I’m very lucky to have my 2, but I work 3 jobs to make it (and living generally) possible.

 

[Trouper]

It all seemed to kick off with the pandemic and folk working/staying at home with more disposable income and time to invest in a horse. To some extent that situation continues with flexible working becoming the norm so I don't see a dramatic change until the cost of living increases become so horrendous that they have eaten up all the "savings" from a different working lifestyle. Maybe this winter??

 

[ElectricChampagne]

I think prices actually started to creep up before the pandemic, and then steadily kept rising during it. I went to a few sales and prices were strong pre pandemic. I also recall a you tube personality going to an auction to pick up a pony pre pandemic and ended up not getting anything as the prices were high.
I do agree that the price of less quality horses is starting to level out, although that did happen briefly coming into last winter, but that didn't last long. I was hopeful at the time winter would have caused a more significant slow down.

I think a lot of people who had stock to stell cashed in and continued to.

I suppose the only answer is time will tell.

 

[Wishfilly]

People have been saying the market is going to crash since summer 2020, and it hasn't happened yet.

I do think people hoping for a crash will be disappointed (and I think hoping for a crash is a bad thing from a welfare point of view).

Costs are definitely going up, and that will eventually push some people to loan, or take on a sharer, and in some cases they will have to sell. I think this will bring prices down a bit, and slow down the market. It may become possible to pick up a bargain again!

But equally, a lot of people can reduce their costs- e.g. moving from full to part, part to DIY, assessing whether they really need XYZ feed/supplement, or will cheaper do, maybe taking off back shoes, cutting down on lessons, cutting down on competing etc. Most people aren't keeping their horses in the absolute cheapest way possible, after all! Selling a trailer and the sort of car you need to tow will give you enough money to keep your horse going for quite a while, just as an example.

Last time the market really crashed was in the last recession, when at lot of people lost jobs and were facing a huge, sudden, loss of income. That's much harder to deal with than a slow creep creep creep of rising prices- particularly when the job market is quite good, and it may be possible for people to move jobs or up their income in other ways.

I do think it will be a hard winter for some people, but it doesn't follow that the market will necessarily crash.

I do think unfortunately it will be a really hard winter for places like riding schools, and ironically if more riding schools close, we could see more people looking to buy horses if they have the money available.

 

[ElectricChampagne]

That's a very good point wishfilly. I think a lot of people spend on high priced supplements, the next big name matchy matchy set or trending feed making it all expensive for those who just want the simple things. I'd say they'll be the first things to see a reduction in sales before people sell up totally.

I have nothing against any of those things before anyone says anything. Each to their own and I have no right to judge.

 

[honetpot]

People have been saying the market is going to crash since summer 2020, and it hasn't happened yet.

I do think people hoping for a crash will be disappointed (and I think hoping for a crash is a bad thing from a welfare point of view).

Costs are definitely going up, and that will eventually push some people to loan, or take on a sharer, and in some cases they will have to sell. I think this will bring prices down a bit, and slow down the market. It may become possible to pick up a bargain again!

But equally, a lot of people can reduce their costs- e.g. moving from full to part, part to DIY, assessing whether they really need XYZ feed/supplement, or will cheaper do, maybe taking off back shoes, cutting down on lessons, cutting down on competing etc. Most people aren't keeping their horses in the absolute cheapest way possible, after all! Selling a trailer and the sort of car you need to tow will give you enough money to keep your horse going for quite a while, just as an example.

Last time the market really crashed was in the last recession, when at lot of people lost jobs and were facing a huge, sudden, loss of income. That's much harder to deal with than a slow creep creep creep of rising prices- particularly when the job market is quite good, and it may be possible for people to move jobs or up their income in other ways.

I do think it will be a hard winter for some people, but it doesn't follow that the market will necessarily crash.

I do think unfortunately it will be a really hard winter for places like riding schools, and ironically if more riding schools close, we could see more people looking to buy horses if they have the money available.

I agree with most of this, but fuel is a hidden cost in most things for horses. If you go DIY, in winter you have two trips a day at least and I can see the cost of hay going up, even if the crop is good this year. If you pay an extra £1-1.50 on a small bale if you have it delivered perhaps not too bad, but if it is cost plus delivery? We just have to hope its a really good harvest, and they decide to bale rather than chop straw. I have already budgeted for the increase.
I have my own yard so I can control how much electricity I use which is less than an hour a day in winter plus the electric fence. If you have a DIY yard you have people coming in winter at odd hours, the last one I was on most came after four and left about eight, and if you are lucky they turn the lights off. If you are hoping to make an income from DIY it has to go up. So if you look at total costs going DIY may not be cheaper.

 

[GreyDot]

I have noticed (this is based entirely on my very scientific obsessive browsing of PreLoved) that the price for regular puppy, so no Frenchies or Labs, has come down somewhat since the crazy prices of the pandemic - I think that is a mix of saturating the market (soooo many have been bred to take advatage of the inflated prices) and people going back into office, together with the ridiculous price of dog food these days.
I think this may transfer over to the horse market for lower end horses. I know of a fair few farmers who have bred these last couple of years to take advantage of the market - these coblets are now all one to two years old and will be onto the market soon enough. That's just a snapshot of my area, so I'd reckon that there have been mares put in foal who normally wouldn't have been, to rake in some money.

 

[Flyermc]

I dont think so. I personally dont think higher costs will make much of a difference to horse prices, particularly popular breeds and types. I know that costs are increasing, but so are wages. For only the 2nd time in the last 15 years that ive worked for the same company, we have had a pay increase. You dont normally get one, unless you change roles.

We currently have the least amount of minimum wage jobs that we have ever had, as the company is forced to increase wages to keep and recruit staff. Its an employee job market at the moment and fairly easy to change to a better paid job.

We (as a family of 4) are not being particular effected at the moment due to rising costs.

 

[Wishfilly]

I agree with most of this, but fuel is a hidden cost in most things for horses. If you go DIY, in winter you have two trips a day at least and I can see the cost of hay going up, even if the crop is good this year. If you pay an extra £1-1.50 on a small bale if you have it delivered perhaps not too bad, but if it is cost plus delivery? We just have to hope its a really good harvest, and they decide to bale rather than chop straw. I have already budgeted for the increase.
I have my own yard so I can control how much electricity I use which is less than an hour a day in winter plus the electric fence. If you have a DIY yard you have people coming in winter at odd hours, the last one I was on most came after four and left about eight, and if you are lucky they turn the lights off. If you are hoping to make an income from DIY it has to go up. So if you look at total costs going DIY may not be cheaper.

That's completely valid, and petrol costs are definitely a factor and I am sure hay will go up this winter. I can definitely already see a lot of people cutting back on competing and lessons etc- I'm not saying people aren't feeling the pinch.

But my point isn't that no-one will be priced out- my point is more it won't be the sort of situation where a lot of people are looking at their horses with no money at all to pay for them, which is what happened sadly during the last recession, which I believe did cause a real market crash (including to some extent towards the top of the market).

I think this will be different because it will be slower, and prices will decrease more gradually (And some people will still be paying plenty of money for quality horses).

However if DIY livery yards become increasingly non-viable in some areas, then that will be completely different and I agree would have a really serious impact.

 

[maya2008]

It is still possible to find a bargain if you are willing to put in the work, and there are slightly more of them around now than there were last year. Usual suspects - TBs and small ponies, but also now younger medium sized ponies as well.

 

[ihatework]

I do think the lower end of the market will come down in price over the next 12 months - ie the lame and the yaks that are currently approaching 5 figures

 

[HBB]

I don't think prices are going to crash soon for good quality horses but what I am seeing is a noticeable increase in local horses being advertised for sale. People are either giving up or downsizing due to the rising cost of living. I do worry for the other end of the market, that is where I think prices will crash through winter.

 

[ElectricChampagne]

Speaking to Goresbridge here in Ireland and they say they're having to put an extra day onto their July sale with the number of supplementary entries. They're now accepting supplemental entries until Friday of this week.

Their September sport horse sale sale is 6 days. It will be interesting to see what way prices are going at both of those. They've been strong up to now.

 

[anguscat]

Next year will be interesting as I would suggets that inflation will go up to 22% and interest rates up to 17%.

???

 

[canteron]

Next year will be interesting as I would suggets that inflation will go up to 22% and interest rates up to 17%.

Blimey you be are a prize pessimist- I think that would cause revolution with a horse price crash as a minor side issue!