Horse Price Crash

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billyslad

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While over at Goresbridge this year I noted that people have not been achieving the money they thought their horse was  worth with decent well bred 3yo potential sport horses going unsold at 5-7k euros when they would have made 10k euro last year, I still notice in HnH people asking optimistic money for their 5yos that have done a PN .
Every horse has a value and will sell when it hits that realistic value in the same way a house if reduced enough will eventually sell as it is too much of a bargain to miss I have just read this ;

article.http://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/3796152.Credit_crunch_hitting_horse_owners/

So my question is does any one else think that there will be a Horse Price Crash as people become more desperate to sell and buyers become more canny and are looking for more of a bargain.

Of course there will always be exceptions But whereas a decent 5yo PN horse may have fetched £12-15k last year will they be going for 8-10 next year ? or maybe less the following year ?

Are we all in for a financial reality check ?
 
i do believe thet the average has fallen at all the Tb sales recently and llike everything else, horse prices will have to get more realistic if they want to be sell and wih the cost of keeping them rising they will want to sell i should think. frankly the price of prctically unproven event horses has become stupid so it wont be before time IMO.
 
I'd be glad to get 5-7k for my 3y.o potential sport horse with brothers who are Pavo and BEF Champions and an int eventer.

Lucretia I think the TB industry is far more to do with over production than the economic climate. It's been bad for a while now.
 
Re gorsbridge. As I was told the price for the good horses has only changed a little, with people still paying the big bucks for something special. However, the price of the 'normal' youngster has sufferd a massive decrease, more than half.
Obviously, from a buyers point of view I want prices to be as low as possible, and I think for eventers etc in a few weeks we will see the price drop, but at the moment people are trying to sell for as much as possible.
From a sellers point of view you still want, if not more so now, the most money possible. Maybe people are thiking 'oh we are poor, lets try to sell little jimmy for as much as we can-we really need the money'. Thoughts this-Am I right?
 
I really cant believe the prices that are being asked, on a lot of web sites and magazines. I spend a lot of time on the Internet looking for a reasonable, papered filly to do jumping and hacking.Not much luck, and then sometimes all you get is a mobile phone number.....(rant over, but please some more realistic prices to start with)
JC
 
Prices have been silly imho for a while now, maybe not so much the higher end competition type horses but the bog standard/youngsters/potential issues types. So some correction is probably well overdue, much as in the housing market.... I'm seeing both sides though as need to sell my house but buy a horse!
 
they are no more overproducing than they have in several recent years, the amount of foals on the ground is an easily checkable statisticbut all that aside i ave been up at newmarket a few times in the last month and most people there seem to be convinced the fall in prices is due to the economic climate although as someone said, a good one will always sell well.
as for your query on what is realistic, well considering the returns in eventing, compared to racing here, ireland and the USA and showjumping in mainland europe, asking someone to pay £25'000 for an untried four year old seems a little excessive to me. your only hope of a return is if you sell it on later on in its career. its a wonder any owners bother with eventing under the circumstances.
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im on beans on toast, reckon prices are at an all time low!
you can take 25% off prices from last year, minimum.
we are still selling, just sold a 17hand 10 year old bombproof schoolmaster excellent on roads, winnings at fox bsja and placed dressage, easy to do, flew through vetting, for 3000. the worlds gone mad. he would have been 5 last year.
i have a really smart easy 5yo 15.3 sellefrancais up for 5995, gonna have to drop him too! and even the really good youngsters are going for peanuts, just sold a very scopey, careful 3yo belgian mare by an elite graded stallion, backed, jumping, hacking well for less than 5. unbelievable!
:-( some if them are going to staying till the spring, but at least i get to play with them for a bit longer so i might get out to some more shows!
but at least we are still in business!
always look on the bright side!
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I agree regarding owners in eventing, definitely for love and nothing more.

Re racing, overproduction is a well known problem and has been for several years. If you look at sale results I'm not seeing much difference this year to the previous 2/3 years.
 
I think prices are dropping for "normal" horses: I was selling two this year, one seriously smart for pretty big money (25K) one nice little horse but nothing special. Could have sold the expensive one several times over (if he hadn't gone lame in the nick of time
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) really struggled with the other one, eventually sold him for 3.5K as was desperate not to keep him over the winter. I'm not replacing him either with another project as the numbers don't currently work for me: cost of keep has rocketed, also competing costs which I need to incur to give horses the form to increase their value; sale value has shrunk. Doesn't add up to a profit! So I'm sitting this winter out, will review next year. And the more people there are like me, the more prices will drop so it's a vicious circle in a way... Happy not to have one more to muck out though
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I agree regarding owners in eventing, definitely for love and nothing more.

Re racing, overproduction is a well known problem and has been for several years. If you look at sale results I'm not seeing much difference this year to the previous 2/3 years.

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Horses in Training FULL SALE COMPARATIVE FIGURES
Year Catalogued Offered Sold Aggregate Average Median
2008 1709 1186 935 19,690,300 21,059 8,000
2007 1613 1212 950 23,293,200 24,519 11,000

OCTOBER YEARLING SALE BOOK 3 COMPARATIVE FIGURES
Catalogued Offered Sold Aggregate Average Median
2008 485 414 271 2,815,300 10,389 7,000
2007 653 573 367 5,697,400 15,524 11,000

2008 OCTOBER YEARLING SALE BOOK 2 FULL SALE COMPARATIVE FIGURES
Catalogued Offered Sold Aggregate Average Median
2008 847 719 509 19,672,700 38,650 29,000
2007 633 569 473 23,907,500 50,544 35,000

And the only one that bucked the trend, thanks to certain purchasers!!

2008 OCTOBER YEARLING SALE Book 1 FIGURES
Catalogued Offered Sold Aggregate Average Median
2008 611 532 410 49,821,000 121,515 85,000
2007 733 639 510 64,922,000 127,298 80,000

And Tatts aren't the only sales feeling the bite. I had heard that one consigner at an Irish sale "abandonned" 18 yearlings because they didn't sell.
 
thanks kiram no argument with those figures really and even on the one that as you say 'bucked the trend more lots were led out unsold and for those who dont know book one is the high end very well bred sales.
 
Thanks Kiram but we already know prices are falling and have been for a while, what Lucretia and I are discussing is whether it is due to the current state of the economy (of course this has some affect on the sale figures now and for the past 6 months but most likely not in 2007 when people were still 'spend happy') or whether it is due to the known problem within the industry of 'over-production'. Racingpost for a start would not waste pages on writing a couple of articles on the problem and what actions were being taken if there was no problem.

Take for instance Donny:

06 - sale average - £41,330
07 - sale average - £36,939
08 - sale average - £34,951

Notice the trend?
 
I think its getting harder for buyers though also as a lot of people (me included) are holding onto there nice youngsters and producing them more instead of selling !!
 
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I think its getting harder for buyers though also as a lot of people (me included) are holding onto there nice youngsters and producing them more instead of selling !!

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Good point Stacey, Des said he'd want 10k a peice for either of his boys but ultimately he want to put them into competition with a rider himself. I think alot of breeders are keeping their best stuff.
 
[ QUOTE ]
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I think its getting harder for buyers though also as a lot of people (me included) are holding onto there nice youngsters and producing them more instead of selling !!

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Good point Stacey, Des said he'd want 10k a peice for either of his boys but ultimately he want to put them into competition with a rider himself. I think alot of breeders are keeping their best stuff.

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well if you can afford to then its the best thing to do i think x
 
I have a 9 yr old ridden arab , hacks,fun rides, that sort of stuff, shes under £2000 and had only 1 phone call so far. its totally crazy, not so long ago she would have been more than double that price.
 
Good quality horses will still fetch good money as the credit crunch won't be affecting those buyers. The average horses will be the ones which are difficult to sell.
 
I'd echo the general idea that "in demand" horses will continue to sell for decent prices but would add that this is within each group, not necessarily overall. So fantastic jumpers that will go for an amateur will still be easier to sell than ones that won't, the difference is the latter group will be much, much harder to sell.

Anything with a "hole" - unsoundness, training issues, "quirks" - will get harder to rehome because fewer people will be in a position to take the risk, fewer people will be able to pay top dollar for "management", and there will simply be more of these horses on offer.

As far as keeping them to produce, obviously if you've already got it then you've got to do something with it.
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The question will be then will people who have invested that money "insist" on getting it out later? If this is (as I think it is) a "correction" from an unrealistic situation then prices are unlikely to rise to pre-crunch levels, at least until the larger situation inflates back to the same level.

It also means the production will become more critical re my first point. If the horse produced has a hole in it then there's no way the seller will recoup the investment. Some people seem to work on the "put a little in, get a little out" system and I think that will get harder to do.

Hmm, that all sounds a bit gloomy.
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I think what will really be important is for people to think about where they are putting their horsey dollars and what investments will yield the greater return. With a bit of luck (to my way of thinking) this will mean more people concentrating on fewer horses, being as careful as they can be, and not being so blase about attrition and horses "just not working out".

But maybe that's just my little fantasy take on an otherwise quite depressing current situation.
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Im unsure about the costs reducing, but I have really noticed a quiet market. Ive got a pony to sell and Ive had 2 calls in the past 2 1/2 months and no viewers, when he's priced the same as past ponies Ive had who I could have sold 20 times over in previous years. I guess maybe this is because buyers are expecting bargains now. Im in a position where I can afford to keep him meantime though so I wont be reducing.
 
There have been far too many horses bred just for money in the last few years.
After talking to someone the other day who has the horrid job of delivering horses to the meat man, he said the horses are being brought for €250 and the are doing 80 a day and there is a 5 week waiting list.
So yes there is a turn in the horse market due to the credit crunch, and unfortunately it is the avaerage horse that was bred to make the owner some money that is going.
 
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