lunging?

Um, so many variables!
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Will depend on how much feed ned is getting (inc. grass).

A headcollar isn't great for lunging in - it will twist round.

Keep the lunging time short, and move your feet so's nedis not on true circle, it's not so good for them.

Don't lunge for more than twenty minutes (ten mins both sides). This depends on age and fitness of ned.
 
Obviously as MrsMozart said there are a number of factors.
However if it is more exercise than what he generally gets then yes he should loose weight/become fitter, it is the whole lunging procedure that causes weight loss not the use of gadgets.
 
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