Trainers Championship

Clodagh said:
Musing today, about Mr Mullins on the brink of winning the championship again after winning 20 races over here (ish!).
As the Grand National has such a disproportionate purse would it not make sense for it to be a stand alone race and not included in the championship?
As it stands if you win the National you are pretty sure of winning the championship.
Having said that, come on the Skeltons!
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I think they need to go back to number of winners rather than prize money.

Mullins would probably still win though 🙄
 
It’s McDemott and The kniphand have been PTS. Believe both either broke legs or broke down very badly. Must’ve been the ground I would imagine. Far too fast for jump racing?
 
Parrotperson said:
It’s McDemott and The kniphand have been PTS. Believe both either broke legs or broke down very badly. Must’ve been the ground I would imagine. Far too fast for jump racing?
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One had a heart attack it looked like? I don’t know which and I’m not watching the race again.
There were other very lame horses.
 
I think it's very hard to say that the ground was too quick - it was officially Good to Soft (Good in Places). There is masses of data on racing, which does give us evidence on this.
The figures for fatality risk correlated with going are :
  • Heavy - 0.22%
  • Soft - 0.33%
  • Good to Soft - 0.43%
  • Good - 0.51%
  • Good to Firm - 0.85%
So today's going was bang in the middle in terms of risk.

Please forgive me if I appear to be defensive. Whilst I am a fan of jump racing I am never a fan of any fatality. I do think that the data and statistics we have do not support all of the theories suggested, and that it is really important that there are bodies constantly analysing events and circumstances so that we have accurate numbers to measure risk, so that those in charge can make evidence-based decisions to improve welfare, rather than just going on feelings or guesses.
 
Gamebird said:
I think it's very hard to say that the ground was too quick - it was officially Good to Soft (Good in Places). There is masses of data on racing, which does give us evidence on this.
The figures for fatality risk correlated with going are :
  • Heavy - 0.22%
  • Soft - 0.33%
  • Good to Soft - 0.43%
  • Good - 0.51%
  • Good to Firm - 0.85%
So today's going was bang in the middle in terms of risk.

Please forgive me if I appear to be defensive. Whilst I am a fan of jump racing I am never a fan of any fatality. I do think that the data and statistics we have do not support all of the theories suggested, and that it is really important that there are bodies constantly analysing events and circumstances so that we have accurate numbers to measure risk, so that those in charge can make evidence-based decisions to improve welfare, rather than just going on feelings or guesses.
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I love racing and own racehorses. I don’t enjoy races like today.
I would say the going was closer to good by the time of the National, and watered ground is never the same as naturally wet.
 
Clodagh said:
I love racing and own racehorses. I don’t enjoy races like today.
I would say the going was closer to good by the time of the National, and watered ground is never the same as naturally wet.
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Absolutely, and after seeing the data you would be completely within your rights to draw a line that you think is acceptable (obviously we would all prefer that to be 0.0%) and say, for instance, 'I don't support jump racing being held on anything other than heavy or soft ground'.

You may also be correct on the drying factor. One of the reasons the latest safety review moved the Grand National start time earlier in the day was to mitigate the effects of the course drying throughout the day.

My post was more to the point that we have research and numbers for most of this stuff, which makes it completely quantifiable. Our gut feeling as observers is not always correct. How often on here do we see outrage when races are run on heavy ground, whereas the numbers say that is statistically by far the safest ground to run a jump race on?
 
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Gamebird said:
Absolutely, and after seeing the data you would be completely within your rights to draw a line that you think is acceptable (obviously we would all prefer that to be 0.0%) and say, for instance, 'I don't support jump racing being held on anything other than heavy or soft ground'.

You may also be correct on the drying factor. One of the reasons the latest safety review moved the Grand National start time earlier in the day was to mitigate the course drying throughout the day.

My post was more to the point that we have research and numbers for most of this stuff, which makes it completely quantifiable. Our gut feeling as observers is not always correct. How often on here do we see outrage when races are run on heavy ground, whereas the numbers say that is statistically by far the safest ground to run a jump race on?
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Absolutely fair point. For instance I thought the Red Marauder GN was one of the most despicable races I have ever watched. So I am completely hypocritical 🤣
 
Clodagh said:
Absolutely fair point. For instance I thought the Red Marauder GN was one of the most despicable races I have ever watched. So I am completely hypocritical 🤣
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I agree that it isn't always a pretty picture, but fewer horses die, and I think that would surprise a lot of people.
 
Gamebird said:
I agree that it isn't always a pretty picture, but fewer horses die, and I think that would surprise a lot of people.
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I totally agree with this too, in heavy ground they are going slower and tire more quickly enabling pull ups earlier rather than later in the race and softer falls.

Obviously predicting the weather is impossible and this time last year we were still wading in knee deep mud in most of the country, but in general Spring is getting warmer and drier due to climate change, think back to the first shut down of Covid which was 5 years ago and with the same weather conditions as we have now. Is it time to make a change to the championship races timetable I wonder, bringing them forward into perhaps, February which would give a better chance of getting true NH jumping ground and negate the need for watering. The risk of frost would be there though. Lots of other ifs and buts too, fitness, qualifying etc etc.

Today has been a bad day for NH and I can see it being gone in the next 20 years.
 
Agree with Adorable Alice, said the same after the GN in the heat last weekend I think they need to look at changing the schedule, maybe keeping a weekend or 2 clear so if there's a really big meeting it can be rescheduled

I'd rather see heavy going, them going slower than blistering pace and heat exhausted at the end
 
Was it unduly warm and sunny for the time of year at Ayr yesterday, like it was at Aintree the previous weekend? Was heat exhaustion a factor in the carnage?

I don't watch racing any more, barring foolishly making an exception for the GN last w/e 🙄. Racing now sickens me, though I was previously a keen follower.

Musing whether the race start times could be brought well forward in hot weather to early doors on the same day? I know that would play havoc with paying punters at the course and tv schedules, and also maybe low sun dazzling horses at some fences?
 
Tiddlypom said:
Was it unduly warm and sunny for the time of year at Ayr yesterday, like it was at Aintree the previous weekend? Was heat exhaustion a factor in the carnage?

I don't watch racing any more, barring foolishly making an exception for the GN last w/e 🙄. Racing now sickens me, though I was previously a keen follower.

Musing whether the race start times could be brought well forward in hot weather to early doors on the same day? I know that would play havoc with paying punters at the course and tv schedules, and also maybe low sun dazzling horses at some fences?
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What happened yesterday had nothing to do with the weather or the time of day, it was a horrible to watch race but not for any reason that’s fixable.
 
The BHA do change race times when it’s hot during the summer and trainers often start work at home even earlier and racecourses would have extra cooling in place when it’s hotter this time of year. It something I think about and apparently a thing Sam Quek raised that athletes practices the time of day and conditions they are going to compete in but racehorses exercise early not the race time of day.
 
We seem to have got sidelined by the fallers away from the original question but after yesterday Willie Mullins is only £1800 behind and it would seem inevitable that he’s going to win the trainers championship again, he is in a league of his own.
 
bonny said:
What happened yesterday had nothing to do with the weather or the time of day, it was a horrible to watch race but not for any reason that’s fixable.
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Well they need to try to fix it. I imagine at least two more of those lame horses yesterday will be pts going forward. We can’t just ignore their deaths.
 
bonny said:
We seem to have got sidelined by the fallers away from the original question but after yesterday Willie Mullins is only £1800 behind and it would seem inevitable that he’s going to win the trainers championship again, he is in a league of his own.
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I hope Dan hangs in there, there’s a lot of smaller races he can go to over the next fortnight.
 
Tiddlypom said:
Was it unduly warm and sunny for the time of year at Ayr yesterday, like it was at Aintree the previous weekend? Was heat exhaustion a factor in the carnage?
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The Met Office give 13-14C for Ayr between 3pm and 4pm yesterday, with incoming cloud cover. So not unseasonably warm.

However the accidents happened in the first 2.5 miles of the race, so I cannot see that for horses trained for long distances there should have been any element of exhaustion at this stage of the race. The factors should technically have been similar as for any of the other chase races on the card at that point as the extended distance factor had not yet come into play.

It would actually be really interesting (and I might have a look if I ever get time!) to correlate the various regional Nationals in terms of date/place in the calendar, off time, ground, weather conditions, fatalities, finishers. Maybe the BHA or the welfare board are already doing this? The Irish National, held at the end of April on generally decent ground, for example, compared to the Welsh National on the 27th December, generally held in a bog. I would have to look at numbers to be sure, but I do not particularly associate the Irish version with carnage, despite the late date. Although it also has a late off time. So many factors!
 
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I was hoping to be home in time to see the Scottish national now I really regret I was! To see a former winner pass away running erratically off the course and then the awful falls I felt physically sick. I have loved the sport since watching Arkle but I can't watch anymore.
 
Valgrand had irreparable damage to his neck. Very moving interview with Dan Skelton on Racing TV. It’s on their Facebook page.
 
Gamebird said:
The Met Office give 13-14C for Ayr between 3pm and 4pm yesterday, with incoming cloud cover. So not unseasonably warm.

However the accidents happened in the first 2.5 miles of the race, so I cannot see that for horses trained for long distances there should have been any element of exhaustion at this stage of the race. The factors should technically have been similar as for any of the other chase races on the card at that point as the extended distance factor had not yet come into play.

It would actually be really interesting (and I might have a look if I ever get time!) to correlate the various regional Nationals in terms of date/place in the calendar, off time, ground, weather conditions, fatalities, finishers. Maybe the BHA or the welfare board are already doing this? The Irish National, held at the end of April on generally decent ground, for example, compared to the Welsh National on the 27th December, generally held in a bog. I would have to look at numbers to be sure, but I do not particularly associate the Irish version with carnage, despite the late date. Although it also has a late off time. So many factors!
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Would you think they really have enough warming up time to function at that level ?

I've often thought the gallop to the start is not adequate
 
A
tristars said:
Would you think they really have enough warming up time to function at that level ?

I've often thought the gallop to the start is not adequate
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Actually yes, I genuinely do. Most horses leave their boxes 45+ mins before the race and, barring a few minutes saddling time are walking for that whole period. I have used strava to track mileage when leading up and depending on the racecourse set-up have walked horses for up to 2 miles. Then they canter to the start - ideally a steady warming up canter, which is again dependent on the start location for that distance on that track, but would commonly be over half a mile (I regularly run round tracks so have a good feel for the distances). So I would be happy that is an adequate warmup. Obviously there is a balance to be struck with doing too much, as you do not want to take anything out of the fuel tank pre-race.
 
Gamebird said:
A

Actually yes, I genuinely do. Most horses leave their boxes 45+ mins before the race and, barring a few minutes saddling time are walking for that whole period. I have used strava to track mileage when leading up and depending on the racecourse set-up have walked horses for up to 2 miles. Then they canter to the start - ideally a steady warming up canter, which is again dependent on the start location for that distance on that track, but would commonly be over half a mile (I regularly run round tracks so have a good feel for the distances). So I would be happy that is an adequate warmup. Obviously there is a balance to be struck with doing too much, as you do not want to take anything out of the fuel tank pre-race.
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This is interesting - would love to know more (and what your step count is 😂)

Anyone know what distances are covered for a horse in a warm up pre 5* xc?
 
I think the 5* horses thing is massively more individual. I steward the XC warmup at a 5*. Obviously they jump, unlike racehorses (although weirdly apparently they do in France), but you will have people in the warmup for anything from zero to 40 mins. I wouldn't necessarily know how much, if anything, they do before entering the warmup.
 
Gamebird said:
I think the 5* horses thing is massively more individual. I steward the XC warmup at a 5*. Obviously they jump, unlike racehorses (although weirdly apparently they do in France), but you will have people in the warmup for anything from zero to 40 mins. I wouldn't necessarily know how much, if anything, they do before entering the warmup.
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Yes, it's a crap comparison tbf, as so individual. Whereas as you say most racehorses are doing the same thing for the half hour plus pre race. Interesting :)
 
Some Willie Mullins’ stars at Sandown on Saturday and of course Jonbon. Went to Sandown last year just to see him and to Ascot for Energumene.
 
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