If he hasn't got any fat pads or a cresty neck and has never had laminitis then I wouldn't worry too much right now but I would certainly look to be getting his grass reduced way before April if he is still at a similar weight
He's a dear little thing and to be honest if he's not a proven lami-risk, I wouldn't be overly worried, but would keep an exceedingly close eye on him. Re belly, obvious question but has he been wormed?
Don't forget we have had an exceptionally mild autumn and very mild here today so he won't have used his grass/haylage for keeping warm yet. You will probably see a change when it gets colder for any length of time (if it ever does).
Weigh taped him again today and he's dropped again He's now been split from his mate so they both have about an acre each and also we know exactly what each is getting feed wise.
Because I have no storage for hay he is having a bucket feed of hifi lite am to give him something to do and then a token amount of high fibre haylage. He seems happy with this and he's dropping weight and he's not getting stroppy!
I must be a real softy, but my new forest is unclipped , out 24/7 but has a thick full neck rug on, even though he has a fluffy coat. The thought of him standing in torrential rain with no rug on makes me cringe. Mine is a little porky too but im not worried, he will be sectioned off as soon as the grass starts growing again.