Winter 2024/2025 predictions

PurBee

PurBee

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Seems from data gathered so far that a weak pacific El Nina means it’ll be a drier and cooler winter for Europe.

I went hunting for predictions after last winters perpetual stormy wash-out! Thankfully we will have some dry weather this winter 😁 That’s cheered me up!

Warning - the below link is a long article rather than a summary, on the el nino/el nina weather patterns and polar vortex affects, which affect global seasonal weather patterns. This data is used to predict seasons upcoming.

www.severe-weather.eu

Winter Forecast 2024/2025: First long-range Predictions from Seasonal Weather models

First look at the Winter 2024/2025 forecast for U.S., Canada and Europe, and the potential impacts of a weak La Niña and the Polar Vortex
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu
 
I think I read somewhere else that it is predicted to be colder, but also still very wet due to El Nina, although I can't say how accurate the source is.

I do think that we are due much colder Winters in the UK in general if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapses, which apparently could happen anytime as early as 2025 onwards.
 
Miss_Millie said:
I think I read somewhere else that it is predicted to be colder, but also still very wet due to El Nina, although I can't say how accurate the source is.

I do think that we are due much colder Winters in the UK in general if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapses, which apparently could happen anytime as early as 2025 onwards.
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Yes, its a mix of high pressure from the weak pacific El Nina predicting drier than usual weather for west europe, with a weaker than usual polar vortex that pushes cold air down from the poles, so its seems currently it’ll be dry and cold. More snow than usual northern europe and west north europe for skiing fans!

I havent read about the AMOC..off to google!
 
PurBee said:
Yes, its a mix of high pressure from the weak pacific El Nina predicting drier than usual weather for west europe, with a weaker than usual polar vortex that pushes cold air down from the poles, so its seems currently it’ll be dry and cold. More snow than usual northern europe and west north europe for skiing fans!

I havent read about the AMOC..off to google!
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I think the latest science predicts the AMOC collapsing could result in a cooling of between 5C and 15C across Western Europe, so our Winters would become significantly colder...but drier too, on the plus side?!
 
lynz88 said:
...and I read in a few places that La Niña and El Niño don't have a huge effect on the UK but has a major effect on the US/Canada and South America


Thanks - I was going to post the same
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The link explains in more detail the ways in which the Pacific currents affect further afield than just USA/SA/canada.
Im no expert on global weather systems, but what i gather is its mainly due to the jet stream being moved by the Nina’s/ Nino’s shifting pressure systems from east to west, that then goes on to affect europe.
 
Miss_Millie said:
I think the latest science predicts the AMOC collapsing could result in a cooling of between 5C and 15C across Western Europe, so our Winters would become significantly colder...but drier too, on the plus side?!
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I remember in the 80’s winters as a kid, leaning out my bedroom window to snap foot long icicles hanging off the gutter. We havent been able to do that for a long time now!
 
Like I said before, watch the season 9 episode of Doctor Who called “Heaven Sent.” Did Stephen Moffat and Peter Capaldi know they were making the perfect allegory for owning horses in Scottish winter? Probably not. Did they in fact make a perfect allegory for owning horses in Scottish winter? Oh yes, yes they did.

I will be watching it and feeling sorry for myself when the horses change from summer to winter schedules.
 
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Caol Ila said:
Like I said before, watch the season 9 episode of Doctor Who called “Heaven Sent.” Did Stephen Moffat and Peter Capaldi know they were making the perfect allegory for owning horses in Scottish winter? Probably not. Did they in fact make a perfect allegory for owning horses in Scottish winter? Oh yes, yes they did.

I will be watching it and feeling sorry for myself when the horses change from summer to winter schedules.
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Scotland may experience snow if the weak polar vortex is anything to go by.
I’ll have to dl that dr who episode!

The first time my gelding saw snow he laid down in it and made a ‘horse angel’ shape…wriggling like a worm in it 😂 His eyes were on stalks completely baffled by it!
 
KittenInTheTree said:
The blackberries have come in later than last year, but there are more of them. I am anticipating a short, very cold winter, followed by a cold, wet spring.
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That reminds me of the bygone farmers lore - where we witness natures trends indicating what’s to come.
I’ve noticed this year half the swallows have left, and half remain as there was a late nest to bring on. That’s different to most years, maybe they know autumn will be mild dry and warm? Hope so!

When we moved to west Ireland, the old man at the local shop told us “if it rains on St Patricks Day, it’ll rain for 40 days”….it bloody well did!


I’m going to lag/insulate all outside yard pipes/water tanks so horse watering is less likely to freeze, saving me hauling buckets around.
 
We’ve still got loads of swallows but barely any blackberries.. my tomatoes are only just ripening and courgettes are still at the flower stage. All outside pipes/taps are lagged but it still didn’t stop them freezing a few times last winter 🥶
 
KittenInTheTree said:
The blackberries have come in later than last year, but there are more of them. I am anticipating a short, very cold winter, followed by a cold, wet spring.
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Not round here, they haven't. They were actually really early. I started picking them at the beginning of July. There are a lot of them, though. Still seem to be the final ones ripening, but a lot have gone over. The last lot I picked two weeks ago were all wormy 🤢, so I stopped picking them at that point.
 
We have blackberries and rose hips, (which I'm sure are usually later in the year) it seems everything is out of kilter.

I had a turkey hatch eggs last week. I don't think the animals can work out what time of year it is.

I'm hoping for a cold dry one I feel we've had enough wet winters - it's only fair we get a dry one.
 
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