Writtle Futurity Results Published

I still think the evaluators should look at the horse in front of them, without knowing the pedigree, that is the only way they can be 100% unbiased - though the pedigree could be disclosed at the time they do their recap and they could then add (not alter) comments with what the pedigree tells them.

I don't mean by that that they would be consciously biased, but it is human nature to have preferences, or dislikes, based on personal experience, or prejudice, and that has an impact on your decisions, however much you try and block them out.

However, I think the most useful change the Futurity could make would be to get people to commit to entering their youngsters for the whole series. So there is a follow up of a youngster's development. During the 4 years, the category entered could be changed by agreement between the owner and evaluators. The 3 year old assessment would have a mark on the day + an overall review of the progress throughout the series and the final assessment on the horse's true potential.

In practice, of course, young horses get sold, are injured on the day etc... and that would make the above quite impractical, but there are ways around it, like making the overall assessment mark (at the 3 year old assessment) the only mark that truly "counts" (and only if the horse was presented at least once more, ideally as a foal or 2 year old). So ideally, assessed 4 times over 4 years, but at a minimum twice over 4 years, and always as a 3 year old.

Re-reading myself - Not sure I'm making that much sense... Oh well :rolleyes: :D
 
Interesting thought .... And it is sometimes difficult to evaluate foals, with the best will in the world, particularly, perhaps, those foals bred to showjump or event? The Futurity is evolving, and the organisers really do seem to be taking feedback on board and introducing changes where there's a weight of opinion for change, so all credit to them.

The whole issue of early/late maturing types adds to the trickiness of evaluating youngstock, I think. I currently have a 2- and 3-year old, with the 2-year old (out of a TB mare by a Holstein stallion with high % of TB blood) already maturing into an elegant and athletic frame, and showing a great balance over a jump the only time we loose jumped him. He has always been a "looker". The 3 year old was (looking back at his photos) a bit of an ugly duckling. He's out of an ISH mare by a TB/WB stallion. He had a big head, knee and hock joints, and was obviously going to be huge! He's now 17.1 and still growing, but beginning to mature into a very handsome swan! We have loose jumped him, and he flies over a pretty high pole (only once, don't believe in over-facing youngsters), but the technique is not nearly as elegant as the 2 year-old, as he is still finding his balance and growing into himself. I think that at five or six he's likely to have a hell of a jump on him. But still difficult to say for sure right now ..... So I must say that I have lots of sympathy with those who are trying to evaluate the potential of a 3 month-old foal in front of them, and perhaps those of us who take our stock to the Futurity need to take all those uncertainties into account, and see it as just one opportunity to gain feedback from experienced breeders and judges at that moment in time. Only when the Futurity has been running for a good many more years will we really know how accurate it is at predicting future performance.
 
I am lucky enough to own a 5 yr old who gained very good marks as an eventer in the Futurity as a 2 yr old. He is dressage bred but had the frame and type of an eventer (was bought as a foal with eventing in mind - I knew the pedigree and am a 7/8 tb fan...) and was not "flouncy" enough to be presented as a dressage horse (in my opinion at the time). He is now broken and working towards some autumn events. He still has the frame and movement of an event horse and also has a very good pop. However, his temperament is too nice! At the moment I doubt he has the guts to make a top horse. He is obedient, honest and utterly charming but lacks the TB edge and quick reactions that you need for a serious XC horse. The evaluators knew his pedigree but he showed himself off to perfection on the day so they gave him good marks. It would have been hard to mark him down, whichever section he had been entered in. He was recently vetted and the vet commented that he had not seen such a good 4* prospect in a long time. He looks the business but it is only when you ride him that you get a true idea of his potential.
 
Horses can be viewed phenotypically (external looks) or genotypically (internal DNA - indicated by the genetic contents of their pedigree).

To fully assess a horse's potential (i.e. ability that can't yet be demonstrated) you need to assess both views. Without seeing the pedigree of a horse the BEF Futurity Assessors are only being allowed to score potential based on phenotype, but the other half of the equation is being totally missed. It's therefore not then fair to criticise the evaluators on their scoring as two very similar horses phenotypically, may have completely different genotypes - but the evaluators are not privy to that information. In Holsteiner grading systems (one of the better systems in the world), there is even a pedigree score given as part of their evaluation - not just based on something as coarse as % of certain blood, but actually based on the indices etc of the actual animals in their pedigree.

With event horses it is pretty much globally recognised, and has already been pointed out by several posters, that to be competitive at the top levels (and I mean above 3* level) you need a horse with a minimum of 50% 'hot' blood i.e. TB, Arab, or Anglo Arab. The results of the major Championships also back this up. I also agree that the Eventing section should not be a 'dumping ground' for not-quite-dressage horses and not-quite-showjumpers. An eventer is a discrete athlete in it's own right and as part of its make it, a requirement for a significant amount of TB/Arab/AA blood is acknowledged globally as almost a must. Pretending a full warmblood bred horse (and by that I mean one without TB/Arab/AA in its first 4 generations, not just one carrying a warmblood brand...) is going to be a serious contender at 4* level is unrealistic. Blindfolding the BEF Futuri

There may be some very nice young dressage or unconventionally bred horses who score well based on their conformation and athleticism, and they may well be excellent prospects up to 2*. My point is that if a young horse is to be identified as a truly elite event prospect, with the best will in the world, a horse with little or no tb blood is simply not going to cut it at the top of the sport. It should therefore get a score that reflects that it's a good National (i.e. BE up to Advanced), or reasonable International Horse (up to 2*), but is not a serious International prospect. i.e. Let's take and example of one dressage x dressage bred foal vs. a 50%+ TB/Arab/aa foal. Let's say they both score the same marks based on their phenotype (external looks), they should then be assessed on their genotype (real DNA) through the pedigree mark. The 50%+ foal should in my view gain marks for being the foal more likely to go on and translate that good conformation and athleticism into real eventing performance. The statistics on the breeding of the top 4* horses also indicates that TB/Arab/AA is critical in the bloodline. Many of the horses at the Olympics even have a preponderance of TB blood - some even being full TBs.

I do think horses without much TB can do well eventing at the lower and middle levels, but I think at the top levels the speeds and stamina required push them out of their comfort levels and push them closer to their maximum ability leaving little room for error - thats where the I think the view that it's harder to keep warmbloods sound at these levels comes from.

IMHO if the Futurity is serious about finding Elite eventers, pedigree absolutely MUST be considered as the evidence is there in the competition results of the major competitions that proves a large component of TB/Arab/AA blood is a requirement at this level.

If people are concerned that people will make accusations that the scores were skewed because the evaluators knew the blood line, the simple way round it is to show them the bloodline as the last part of the evaluation once the other scores have been recorded. I do believe it should receive a score of its own which is included in the overall score, not just be a 'for information' score otherwise we will continue to see foals winning BEF championships which have a pedigree which indicates its chances of making it to the top level are very limited, and the Futurity will be brought into disrepute, which is something I would not want to happen.
 
Brilliant post Julia that should be printed in horse and hound mag!!

How refreshing that there are still people who realise the importance of the TB in eventing!

Do get sickened by the large amounts of horses being bred for eventing by people that simply don't understand or appreciate the importance of having ' blood' in a event horse pedigree . And the Futurity does not help& is guiding people in the wrong direction.
 
Another to agree with Julia. I was lucky enough at my first Futurity to present a two year old by my Welsh D stallion out of a 2* mare. She got Elite, but there's no way she could ever be up to International standard because of the speed needed XC. I sent her to a TB stallion, and the resulting youngster SHOULD have enough blood to be competitive at the higher levels.
 
TheMule said:
I totally agree with Seabiscuit- why would you enter a dressage bred youngster in the eventing section? Presumably only because it doesn't move quite well enough to do the dressage section?!

These horses may well win at BE100 but they are surely not 4* prospects- ask any event rider what they want to be sat on coming out the startbox and it'll be something with guts and stamina.... the TB influence. A 4* horse doesn't have to have off-the-floor paces, it just needs to be odedient and correct in its way of going. A clear round over a 1.25 track is not hard to get at a 1 day but on the 3rd day of a major competition, that stamina and those guts set the TBs apart from the rest.

The futurity is falling way short of its brief if it's identifying dressage x dressage foals as potential elite event horses.
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I totally disagree as I do not think you have really taken into account the proactive breeding policy of some of the big studbooks. The seven year old I bred for dressage won two ccc* back to back. this is because the dam line has jumping blood.
 
There are dressage lines with a jump and there are dressage lines that most definitely don't have a jump (unless you are prepared to physically pick them up and chuck them)! Now if you put none jumping lines to none jumping line, you would be a braver person than I to take the resulting youngster XC!

But the reality of the situation, did the breeder by putting dressage to dressage intend, from the onset, to breed a horse for three day eventing. Or is the resulting foal not quite good enough to be a higher level dressage horse, so it will go eventing.

As far as I know, I am not a breeder of eventers, but I have heard that it takes a decent amount of TB in a horse to get ALL the attributes required to event at a decent level.
 
sywell said:
I totally disagree as I do not think you have really taken into account the proactive breeding policy of some of the big studbooks. The seven year old I bred for dressage won two ccc* back to back. this is because the dam line has jumping blood.
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Without knocking your horse's achievements (because winning one x 1* is brilliant, two is really, really brilliant :)), there is a world of difference between 1* and 4**** and I believe TheMule is talking about the truely elite horses who are aiming at 3*** and beyond.
 
Jumping blood in the pedigree is not enough to make an eventer.
It doesn't matter how well it jumps if it hasn't got the speed, the courage and the stamina.
For that you need hot TB blood.
Today's warmblood was created by breeding to cold blooded work horses years ago, that is the heritage that will fail them as event prospects, unless enough TB / Arab is reintroduced regularly and in large enough quantities.
 
We are breeding for racing our first coloured horse on the track has shown he has ability,being 87.5% TB or 7/8ths.
Last year we choose a warmblood stallion the sheer difference in types out of the same mare is quiet marked the filly is beautiful moving but not as fast brained or trusting as any of our other foals by Ricco we have done nothing different, she is 75% blood and rummy is 87% he has jumping ability and speed and staminer and could go on to do advanced, The filly as she was by AI shes not going to race, I just thought it was very interesting to see the diffence a little less blood makes, she has quiet a lot of speed in short bursts where as our new foal whos 94% Blood will at 3 weeks run rings round her she just stands there and watches. :D
 
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