Putting fatalities into prospective

[Orangehorse]

That was an extremely interesting and well researched article. It really was simply bad luck that the two horses died.

 

[Rowreach]

That was an extremely interesting and well researched article. It really was simply bad luck that the two horses died.

Or you could say it was good luck that 38 of them didn't.

 

[Elf On A Shelf]

I've not read all of the thread but another eventing death the other week to throw into the mix - Sir Roscoe.

And also how many show horses and ponies get put down through lammi because of over feeding to get "Show Condition"? How many Showjumpers get pts through irreparable injuries? How many dressage horses get put down through buggered legs? Endurance horses - heart attacks? Polo ponies - bones and heart attacks? Idiotic owners who don't have a clue?

Come to think of it I can't recall the last time a horse died between the shafts of a cart? Maybe we should all take up driving!

 

[Ladydragon]

That was an extremely interesting and well researched article. It really was simply bad luck that the two horses died.

If there is more likely to be a fatality per race than not, I'm not sure that it can be deemed 'bad luck'...

To me at least, 'bad luck' suggests a random, unexpected event... Which is certainly not the case for horse deaths and the GN...

 

[Sherri]

Come to think of it I can't recall the last time a horse died between the shafts of a cart? Maybe we should all take up driving!

Don't look into Harness Racing then as it will shatter the dream (please don't think I'm anti racing of any kind for the comment, but ALL sports involving horses have death rates)

 

[Elf On A Shelf]

Don't look into Harness Racing then as it will shatter the dream (please don't think I'm anti racing of any kind for the comment, but ALL sports involving horses have death rates)

I had completely forgotton about harness racing! In my head I had the show carraiges and the skurry driving! But yes, I can now only imagine the fatalities in that.

 

[Sherri]

I had completely forgotton about harness racing! In my head I had the show carraiges and the skurry driving! But yes, I can now only imagine the fatalities in that.

I remember a description of harness racing that I was told by a harness racing trainer..

If horse racing (flat, NH types) is the sport of kings, harness racing is the ugly step sister...

I worked on a harness racing yard and it was sort of true, but in fairness the jockeys are just as much at risk as the horses, being on a sulkie is like sitting on a catapult if the horse goes down for any reason you end up flying through the air.

 

[cptrayes]

What might have been a better way of expressing the sentiment, was 'that the finger is rarely pointed at other equine sport with a much vigour and righteous condemnation than it is at racing, but that other sports such as SJ and dressgae also have welfare concerns'. Would that be less incredibly aggrogant?

Yes, less arrogant, now just plain wrong . If you were to search on this forum just a little bit you will find plenty of utter condemnation of how top horses are trained and kept in all disciplines, especially in dressage.

But by the same token the road riding owner is putting their charge at risk, what is the difference if the horse is bought down by a car or another horse, they are both 3rd party actions?

One risk is completely forseeable, expected in 1 in 100 starters in that race, normal behaviour on the part of the horses, and legal. A horse road traffic death is never expected, never predictable, not normal behaviour for the horse and almost always caused by inadequate, and often illegal, driving.

Badminton can never be made as a straighforward equivalent to the National due to the nature of the event, i.e. a rider and horse at Badminton does not have to contend with 39 other riders and horses all trying to get over the jump at the same time!

Exactly so, but if it caused deaths in the numbers that the Grand National does, it would not continue without major alterations.



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[cptrayes]

And also how many show horses and ponies get put down through lammi because of over feeding to get "Show Condition"? ....... Idiotic owners who don't have a clue?

Do two wrongs make a right?

 

[Elf On A Shelf]

Of course not but seeing as people were bandying around with eventing I thought I would add in other disciplins just for the craic

 

[Emilieu]

Eke, didn't a horse die in New York while pulling a carriage fairly recently? Sure I read that somewhere!

 

[Dab]

Whilst it is probably predictable that a number of horses will die in road accidents every year,

Doesn't this^^^^^ contradict...

A horse road traffic death is never expected, never predictable, not normal behaviour for the horse and almost always caused by inadequate, and often illegal, driving.,

^^^this

If you were to search on this forum just a little bit you will find plenty of utter condemnation of how top horses are trained and kept in all disciplines, especially in dressage.
...

Maybe so but you rarely see this type of condemnation in say the red tops or the RSCPA making statements to the press or on the TV about these matters.

Exactly so, but if it caused deaths in the numbers that the Grand National does, it would not continue without major alterations.

...

And two horses died at Badminton in 2007, and the changes for 2008 were?. Even so, as has been stated previously you can not make a direct comparison with an event like Badminton.

 

[Emilieu]

*ekw! Can't edit (or type...) on phone x

 

[cptrayes]

Maybe so but you rarely see this type of condemnation in say the red tops or the RSCPA making statements to the press or on the TV about these matters.

That's proportional to the number of people who watch the event. A footballer dies on a pitch in Redditch on a Saturday afternoon local league. It makes the local papers. A premier league footballer dies on the pitch in a televised match, it makes the evening primetime news. If Badminton killed horses year after year the RSPCA would comment.

And two horses died at Badminton in 2007, and the changes for 2008 were?. Even so, as has been stated previously you can not make a direct comparison with an event like Badminton.

It isn't a regular year after year occurrence. You may not like me to, but I think you can make a comparison of horse deaths in two annual horse events that are each the "pinnacle" of their sport.

I don't know why those two died, but if it was the year that one was spiked by a fence flag pole jumping up off the floor after he broke it in half, then those types of poles have never been used since. If the ground conditions were to blame and the same ground conditions occurred the next year the event would likely have been cancelled. If it was found that running horses too close together caused more fatalities, then the time interval between starts would be increased even if it meant fewer than 60 horses could compete.

It is perfectly well documented that a very significant number of fallers in the Grand National are brought down by other horses, and yet they continue to run year after year with 40 starters. How about trying 25 next year, or even 30?

 

[Dab]

That's proportional to the number of people who watch the event. A footballer dies on a pitch in Redditch on a Saturday afternoon local league. It makes the local papers. A premier league footballer dies on the pitch in a televised match, it makes the evening primetime news. If Badminton killed horses year after year the RSPCA would comment.

Fair point, but that is why the thread it titled 'putting the fatalities into perspective' (SP)

It isn't a regular year after year occurrence. You may not like me to, but I think you can make a comparison of horse deaths in two annual horse events that are the "pinnacle" of their sport.

I don't know why those two died, but if it was the year that one was spiked by a fence flag pole jumping up off the floor after he broke it in half, then those types of poles have never been used since. If it was found that running horses too close together caused more fatalities, then the time interval between starts would be increased even if it meant fewer than 60 horses could compete.

It is perfectly well documented that a very significant number of fallers in the Grand National are brought down by other horses, and yet they continue to run year after year with 40 starters. How about trying 25 next year, or even 30?

Yes one was spiked by a flag, the other was a heart attack.

Precisely and based on the very good report from the Cambridge student (?) posted earlier, there seems to be a very crediable reason to reduce the field numbers in the National.

 

[cptrayes]

Originally Posted by cptrayes
Whilst it is probably predictable that a number of horses will die in road accidents every year,

Doesn't this^^^^^ contradict..

Quote:
Originally Posted by cptrayes
A horse road traffic death is never expected, never predictable, not normal behaviour for the horse and almost always caused by inadequate, and often illegal, driving.,

^^^this

No.

It is predictable that a number of horses will be killed somewhere in the UK in the course of a year as a result of road traffic accidents. A tiny, tiny number of horses will be killed somewhere in hundreds of thousands of miles of road at any time of daylight on 365 days. Any one accident is not predictable.

Deaths in National Hunt racing are so frequent, and in addition related to horse ability, ground conditions and field size, that a statistician could easily produce odds on a horse dying in any particular race at any particular NH meet.





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[cptrayes]

Fair point, but that is why the thread it titled 'putting the fatalities into perspective' (SP)

How should I know, it isn't my thread

 

[Dab]

No. It is predictable that a number of horses will be killed somewhere in the UK in the course of a year as a result of road traffic accidents. A tiny, tiny number of horses will be killed somewhere in hundreds of thousands of miles of road at any time of daylight on 365 days. Any one accident is not predictable.

Deaths in National Hunt racing are so frequent, and in addition related to horse ability, ground conditions and field size, that a statistician could easily produce odds on a horse dying in any particular race at any particular NH meet.

Sorry, dont follow how that is not contradictory!

It is predicatble that a horse will be killed somewhere on a road in the UK, but that any one accident is not predictable. Do you mean that the exact time, location, and exact nature of the incident is not predictable?

 

[Dab]

How should I know, it isn't my thread

Doesn't the title of the thread give it away????

 

[cptrayes]

Sorry, dont follow how that is not contradictory!

Then I can't help you much more, sorry. If you want to understand I suggest you study some statistics.

Road accident deaths are random accidents and cannot be predicted except in the widest possible terms that some will occasionally happen.

National Hunt deaths are not random, they are a predictable and frequent outcome of National Hunt Racing.

 

[cptrayes]

Doesn't the title of the thread give it away????

I think perhaps all you are saying is that you want the deaths put into a different perspective than the one I choose to take.

 

[Elf On A Shelf]

National Hunt deaths are not random, they are a predictable and frequent outcome of National Hunt Racing.

Ah but they ARE random! Don't you see! I can't remember how many Jumps tracks there are int he UK at the moment but at each one there will be a minimum of 6 chase fences and 8 hurdles. You can't be sure of which particular fence is going to take a horses life that day, if at all that year or decade thus unpredictable. You also can not be sure of which horse it will affect - unpredictable. Now if more horses died at one particular fence or hurdle then it would be looked into and either moved a bit or completely rebuilt to make it safer.

The National has a unique course and horses have been known to die all over the course, not always at the same fence. So that in itself is unpredictable. You start out with 40 horses - which ones fall - unpredictable - which ones get brought down due to fallers - unpredictable - which ones get injured running loose - unpredictable. There are far too many variables to say that it is predictable and frequent.

So going by your theory of predictability you should know exactly which horse is going to die on which road at what time so please - do tell us!

 

[Dab]

Then I can't help you much more, sorry. If you want to understand I suggest you study some statistics.

Road accident deaths are random accidents and cannot be predicted except in the widest possible terms that some will occasionally happen.

National Hunt deaths are not random, they are a predictable and frequent outcome of National Hunt Racing.

It is not a problem with the statistics it is a problem with what is termed as predictable. In one breath you were saying that road deaths were predicatble but in the next not!

The arguement is spurious if National Hunt deaths are not random, but predictable then please predicted the next NH death, the race, the time, the manner of the death?

 

[cptrayes]

Ah but they ARE random! Don't you see! I can't remember how many Jumps tracks there are int he UK at the moment but at each one there will be a minimum of 6 chase fences and 8 hurdles. You can't be sure of which particular fence is going to take a horses life that day, if at all that year or decade thus unpredictable. You also can not be sure of which horse it will affect - unpredictable. Now if more horses died at one particular fence or hurdle then it would be looked into and either moved a bit or completely rebuilt to make it safer.

The National has a unique course and horses have been known to die all over the course, not always at the same fence. So that in itself is unpredictable. You start out with 40 horses - which ones fall - unpredictable - which ones get brought down due to fallers - unpredictable - which ones get injured running loose - unpredictable. There are far too many variables to say that it is predictable and frequent.

As I said, you need to study more statistics, in particular probability. National Hunt deaths are not random, they are predictable and a good statistician would happily produce you the odds of a horse dying in any particular race. And since bookies use the same science of probability to predict winners, and insurers use it to predict claims, and bookies are rarely poor men and insurers never, then you can see how it works.

So going by your theory of predictability you should know exactly which horse is going to die on which road at what time so please - do tell us!

You really don't understand, do you, and I'm at a loss how to explain it further.

It is the very fact that individual road deaths are completely unpredictable, and National Hunt deaths are not unpredictable that makes it acceptable, to me, for us to continue to ride horses on roads, but not to race them over NH fences and hurdles.

 

[Dab]

I think perhaps all you are saying is that you want the deaths put into a different perspective than the one I choose to take.

Sorry you feel this way, as that was not the jist of the arguement

 

[cptrayes]

The point is that National Hunt deaths are not accidents.

They are a completely logical and expected outcome of the sport. They are so expected that they are planned for and prepared for in such detail that the race continues around them.

And for me, they happen far too often to be justified.

 

[Elf On A Shelf]

The point is that National Hunt deaths are not accidents.

They are a completely logical and expected outcome of the sport. They are so expected that they are planned for and prepared for in such detail that the race continues around them.

And for me, they happen far too often to be justified.

62.5% of major injuries to horses happen whilst turned out in the field. Should we start expecting not to have a horse o bring in of an evening anymore then?

 

[cptrayes]

62.5% of major injuries to horses happen whilst turned out in the field. Should we start expecting not to have a horse o bring in of an evening anymore then?

Do you not get concerned every time you go to bring your horses in and don't find them immediately in one piece? I do. I nearly lost one to a leg-breaking kick two years ago. It was only the fact that the kicker was unshod that saved the horse. And boy I can tell you how much you can panic when you finally find a dead Shetland in 15 acres of grass - so sound asleep that it didn't hear you shouting.

But I am not prepared to deprive my horses of the natural behaviour of herd turnout to prevent my own sorrow if I lose one.

And neither would I put them in a situation where I know that they have a 1 in 20, 50 or even 100 chance of not coming back alive.

 

[Dab]

The point is that National Hunt deaths are not accidents.

They are a completely logical and expected outcome of the sport. They are so expected that they are planned for and prepared for in such detail that the race continues around them.

And for me, they happen far too often to be justified.

But again by the same token deaths on the roads are expected and logical outcome of being in that position! The exact nature and location of the accident is not predictable, but it is so expect that they will happen somewhere that the emergency services are trained and prepared to deal with them.

 

[cptrayes]

But again by the same token deaths on the roads are expected and logical outcome of being in that position! The exact nature and location of the accident is not predictable, but it is so expect that they will happen somewhere that the emergency services are trained and prepared to deal with them.

I'm losing the will to live

The probability of being involved in a road accident on any one hack on any one day which causes the death of a horse is so very, very, very tiny that it would not meet acceptable criteria for being statistically valid.

This is not so of the probability of a National Hunt horse being killed during a race. Events which are so frequent that they can be given a statistically valid probability score.

Neither the Fire Brigade nor the Ambulance service nor vets in cars carry a gun with which to destroy a fatally injured horse. My own vets carry Ketamine - breaking the rules they have been given - for just such a use, which is almost never used in a road traffic accident.