Dab
Well-Known Member
With your knowledge of statistics what is the probability score of a NH being killed during a race?
According to the BHA there are 4 fatalities per 1000 runners, so a 1/250 chance of dying in a race.
According to the BHA there are 4 fatalities per 1000 runners, so a 1/250 chance of dying in a race.
And if the average horse runs 5 times a year, a 1 in 50 chance of finishing the season dead before the race has finished.
And how many more put down at home from injuries they can't recover from?
Would you hack your horse 5 times a year if it had a 1 in 50 or worse chance of dying if you did?
Well now surely that would depend on the probablity score for each of the races you ran your horse in! If say you ran it in 5 races with a smaller probability score of it dying then the odds of it finishing the season would be far greater what you have quoted! Conversely it would go down the other way!
Also, does probabilty work that way? How is it cumulative over a year? Surely every time the horse runs it has a 1/250 chance of not finishing, the probablity is not cut the more times it runs as it is still 1 of 1000 runners.
And if the average horse runs 5 times a year, a 1 in 50 chance of finishing the season dead before the race has finished.
You really don't understand, do you, and I'm at a loss how to explain it further.
Well now surely that would depend on the probablity score for each of the races you ran your horse in! If say you ran it in 5 races with a smaller probability score of it dying then the odds of it finishing the season would be far greater what you have quoted! Conversely it would go down the other way!
Also, does probabilty work that way? How is it cumulative over a year? Surely every time the horse runs it has a 1/250 chance of not finishing, the probablity is not cut the more times it runs as it is still 1 of 1000 runners.
I think your right, it's like the lottery playing it every week doesn't increase your chances of winning as each draw is an independent event.. So every time a horse runs each race is a separate event..
Neither the Fire Brigade nor the Ambulance service nor vets in cars carry a gun with which to destroy a fatally injured horse. My own vets carry Ketamine - breaking the rules they have been given - for just such a use, which is almost never used in a road traffic accident.
If there is a 1 in 250 chance of a runner finishing alive, then to find out the chances of a HORSE finishing the season alive, you have to know the average number of times a horse runs in a season. I'm guessing that it's about 5. So unless deaths are seriously skewed towards horses that run less often, the "average" horse will have something like a 1 in 50 chance of not finishing the season alive. It's imprecise of course, but it's a much more honest figure to talk about horse deaths than runner deaths.
Of course it's a much worse figure, so the racing industry don't like to use it. Just like they don't publish deaths due to injuries caused by a race but not carried out until the animal gets back home.
I personally still feel The Grand National is berated disproportionately on welfare grounds and it is regrettable that the live export of horses for slaughter doesn't attract the same amount of adverse publicity. There is no doubting that some racehorses do suffer for financial gain, however ALL live exported horses for slaughter suffer for financial gain. If the plight of slaughter horses was shown once a year to millions of viewers world wide more might be done to stop this hideous trade, however this isn't such an "easy target" as The GN.
When looking at probabilities it is not that simple. You would need to look at the total number of runners in a season, the total number of races, the amount of fatalities in that season and then factor in the number of times your horse has run in that season. Therefore it is not 1/50 chance of it finishing the season alive if it has runs 5 times!
When looking at probabilities it is not that simple. You would need to look at the total number of runners in a season, the total number of races, the amount of fatalities in that season and then factor in the number of times your horse has run in that season. Therefore it is not 1/50 chance of it finishing the season alive if it has runs 5 times!
I personally still feel The Grand National is berated disproportionately on welfare grounds and it is regrettable that the live export of horses for slaughter doesn't attract the same amount of adverse publicity. There is no doubting that some racehorses do suffer for financial gain, however ALL live exported horses for slaughter suffer for financial gain. If the plight of slaughter horses was shown once a year to millions of viewers world wide more might be done to stop this hideous trade, however this isn't such an "easy target" as The GN.
Deaths in National Hunt racing are so frequent, and in addition related to horse ability, ground conditions and field size, that a statistician could easily produce odds on a horse dying in any particular race at any particular NH meet.
...
As I said, you need to study more statistics, in particular probability. National Hunt deaths are not random, they are predictable and a good statistician would happily produce you the odds of a horse dying in any particular race. And since bookies use the same science of probability to predict winners, and insurers use it to predict claims, and bookies are rarely poor men and insurers never, then you can see how it works.
.
I've been trying to tell you that it's not that simple and that it's an estimate! But until horse racing publishes figures of horse deaths instead of deaths by number of runs, incuding the ones put down at home shortly after racing, we can have no real idea of a the true scale of the problem of deaths in NH racing. Publishing only deaths by runs is disengenuous and makes it look like they have something to hide.
I think those figures may be for where the horse was bred, not where it lives. For example, a French flat racer I bought lived in Britain and raced here under a passport with (Fr) after his name, and the same with the USA bred one I had.
So 1 in 80 is more like the real figure, probably.
But it does not include the many, many horses which are transported back home with life threatening injuries - tendon ruptures and stress fractures probably the commonest - which are then put down off the racecourse but as a direct result of the race. Those figures aren't collected, at least I can't find them anywhere.
Thanks for the stats, interesting!
Last year there were 13680 horses in GB racing (though they might not all have raced that year)
There were approx 1400 fixtures, if you take the average fixture as having 7 races that is 9800 races.
Now to the fatalities according to AA there were 170 fatalities at GB race courses. if you take this without looking further then 1 in 57.6 races has a horse fatally injured, and a horse has a 1-80 chance of being fatally injured. Not good odds for the horse.
one of my fav quotes:
lies, damned lies and statistics...
I just hope this gives a clearer picture on fatalities per horse but I fear it raises more questions than it answers.
Thanks for looking out the stats and good stats quote!
But, not following where the 1/80 chance comes from:
If there are 9800 races in a season i.e 1400 fixtures with 7 races per fixture then with say 6 horses on average running in each race that gives you 57600 raced horses in a season. i.e. one horse will race more than once in a season....
Divide the total number of raced horses by 170 fatalities give you odds of 1/338.
or if as you say there is on average a fatality per 57.6 races then one horse could enter 57 races before it is expected to die!
Hope that helps.
Your figure of fatalities per runner is much better than the official BHA one which is a pleasant surprise as normally I expect them to have swayed the stats in their favour.
I hate statisitics.. any way made me realise my work problems aren't that bad no-one has died at my job..
And if the average horse runs 5 times a year, a 1 in 50 chance of finishing the season dead before the race has finished.
And how many more put down at home from injuries they can't recover from?
Would you hack your horse 5 times a year if it had a 1 in 50 or worse chance of dying if you did?
I think you'll find your 1/50 stat is wrong is this is correct : http://www.mathsisfun.com/fractions_multiplication.html
so with my calculations if a horse has a 1/250 chance of dying per race and runs 5 times the it has a 1/1250 chance of finishing the season dead......
If you have a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a 6 and throw the dice 5 times, you have 5 chances to throw the 6.
So with the lottery, there is the same probability that you will win with the following numbers:
1,2,3,4,5,6
But the chance of this happening!!!! well in all the draws runs so far a full sequence has never been drawn.
We use essential cookies to make this site work, and optional cookies to enhance your experience.