Putting fatalities into prospective

cptrayes

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According to the BHA there are 4 fatalities per 1000 runners, so a 1/250 chance of dying in a race.

And if the average horse runs 5 times a year, a 1 in 50 chance of finishing the season dead before the race has finished.

And how many more put down at home from injuries they can't recover from?

Would you hack your horse 5 times a year if it had a 1 in 50 or worse chance of dying if you did?
 

Ladydragon

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According to the BHA there are 4 fatalities per 1000 runners, so a 1/250 chance of dying in a race.

Taking the GN as an isolated race...that risk is substantially magnified...

For anyone who does follow the darn thing - the 80s saw four fatalities... Double that in the 70s with the decades since being similar... Since 2010, it's four so it does make me wonder if there's any identifiable aspect that mitigated the numbers of fatalities in the 80s... Outside of that decade it averages out close to one horse per race - unacceptable risk for me...

PS...if the above statistics include the much higher risk of the GN - how much does it skew the overall stats? ie, if no GN, would that 4:1000 drop somewhat?

:)
 
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Dab

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And if the average horse runs 5 times a year, a 1 in 50 chance of finishing the season dead before the race has finished.

And how many more put down at home from injuries they can't recover from?

Would you hack your horse 5 times a year if it had a 1 in 50 or worse chance of dying if you did?

Well now surely that would depend on the probablity score for each of the races you ran your horse in! If say you ran it in 5 races with a smaller probability score of it dying then the odds of it finishing the season would be far greater what you have quoted! Conversely it would go down the other way!

Also, does probabilty work that way? How is it cumulative over a year? Surely every time the horse runs it has a 1/250 chance of not finishing, the probablity is not cut the more times it runs as it is still 1 of 1000 runners.
 

Sherri

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Well now surely that would depend on the probablity score for each of the races you ran your horse in! If say you ran it in 5 races with a smaller probability score of it dying then the odds of it finishing the season would be far greater what you have quoted! Conversely it would go down the other way!

Also, does probabilty work that way? How is it cumulative over a year? Surely every time the horse runs it has a 1/250 chance of not finishing, the probablity is not cut the more times it runs as it is still 1 of 1000 runners.

I think your right, it's like the lottery playing it every week doesn't increase your chances of winning as each draw is an independent event.. So every time a horse runs each race is a separate event..
 

cptrayes

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Well now surely that would depend on the probablity score for each of the races you ran your horse in! If say you ran it in 5 races with a smaller probability score of it dying then the odds of it finishing the season would be far greater what you have quoted! Conversely it would go down the other way!

Also, does probabilty work that way? How is it cumulative over a year? Surely every time the horse runs it has a 1/250 chance of not finishing, the probablity is not cut the more times it runs as it is still 1 of 1000 runners.



If there is a 1 in 250 chance of a runner finishing alive, then to find out the chances of a HORSE finishing the season alive, you have to know the average number of times a horse runs in a season. I'm guessing that it's about 5. So unless deaths are seriously skewed towards horses that run less often, the "average" horse will have something like a 1 in 50 chance of not finishing the season alive. It's imprecise of course, but it's a much more honest figure to talk about horse deaths than runner deaths.

Of course it's a much worse figure, so the racing industry don't like to use it. Just like they don't publish deaths due to injuries caused by a race but not carried out until the animal gets back home.
 

cptrayes

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I think your right, it's like the lottery playing it every week doesn't increase your chances of winning as each draw is an independent event.. So every time a horse runs each race is a separate event..



Correct for every time the horse starts. Not correct for its chances of finishing a series of races.

The chance of any one throw of the dice landing a 6 is always 1 in 6. The chances of 6 sixes being thrown in a row are 1/6 x 1/6 x1/6 x1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6

So the chances of a horse racing for the whole season and not dying are much lower than the chances that it will not die in any one of its races.
 

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Neither the Fire Brigade nor the Ambulance service nor vets in cars carry a gun with which to destroy a fatally injured horse. My own vets carry Ketamine - breaking the rules they have been given - for just such a use, which is almost never used in a road traffic accident.

errr - they may not nececcarily have a gun, but every vet (that doesnt hold a gun licence) that goes out as an ambulatory practicioner should have somulose or pentobarb on board - cant believe that people euthanase with Ketamine??!!!!!

(sorry, completely off topic, but Im stunned that anyone would do this!!!)
 

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Who is - me?? how?? (rules here confuse me quite a lot ;) !!)

just to keep deaths in racing on topic, there was one today - on the flat at Ripon.
RIP Arrys Orse.

edited to add - and one eventing today too, Cavalier Bertie ridden by Sharon Hunt. (just as we seem to be comparing many different genres at the moment!!)
 

Dab

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If there is a 1 in 250 chance of a runner finishing alive, then to find out the chances of a HORSE finishing the season alive, you have to know the average number of times a horse runs in a season. I'm guessing that it's about 5. So unless deaths are seriously skewed towards horses that run less often, the "average" horse will have something like a 1 in 50 chance of not finishing the season alive. It's imprecise of course, but it's a much more honest figure to talk about horse deaths than runner deaths.

Of course it's a much worse figure, so the racing industry don't like to use it. Just like they don't publish deaths due to injuries caused by a race but not carried out until the animal gets back home.

When looking at probabilities it is not that simple. You would need to look at the total number of runners in a season, the total number of races, the amount of fatalities in that season and then factor in the number of times your horse has run in that season. Therefore it is not 1/50 chance of it finishing the season alive if it has runs 5 times!
 

silu

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I have been very interested in the varied, knowledgeable and educational responses/links suggested by posters. In the main it would appear the debate is how we differ as to what are acceptable risks to horses and what are not.
I personally still feel The Grand National is berated disproportionately on welfare grounds and it is regrettable that the live export of horses for slaughter doesn't attract the same amount of adverse publicity. There is no doubting that some racehorses do suffer for financial gain, however ALL live exported horses for slaughter suffer for financial gain. If the plight of slaughter horses was shown once a year to millions of viewers world wide more might be done to stop this hideous trade, however this isn't such an "easy target" as The GN.
 

Dab

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I personally still feel The Grand National is berated disproportionately on welfare grounds and it is regrettable that the live export of horses for slaughter doesn't attract the same amount of adverse publicity. There is no doubting that some racehorses do suffer for financial gain, however ALL live exported horses for slaughter suffer for financial gain. If the plight of slaughter horses was shown once a year to millions of viewers world wide more might be done to stop this hideous trade, however this isn't such an "easy target" as The GN.

^^^this

thanks for bringing it back in focus
 

cptrayes

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When looking at probabilities it is not that simple. You would need to look at the total number of runners in a season, the total number of races, the amount of fatalities in that season and then factor in the number of times your horse has run in that season. Therefore it is not 1/50 chance of it finishing the season alive if it has runs 5 times!

I've been trying to tell you that it's not that simple and that it's an estimate! But until horse racing publishes figures of horse deaths instead of deaths by number of runs, incuding the ones put down at home shortly after racing, we can have no real idea of a the true scale of the problem of deaths in NH racing. Publishing only deaths by runs is disengenuous and makes it look like they have something to hide.
 

Ladydragon

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When looking at probabilities it is not that simple. You would need to look at the total number of runners in a season, the total number of races, the amount of fatalities in that season and then factor in the number of times your horse has run in that season. Therefore it is not 1/50 chance of it finishing the season alive if it has runs 5 times!

But how much of a jump in probability if the GN is included? The risks in that race alone appear to be substantially disproportionate to racing per se...

I personally still feel The Grand National is berated disproportionately on welfare grounds and it is regrettable that the live export of horses for slaughter doesn't attract the same amount of adverse publicity. There is no doubting that some racehorses do suffer for financial gain, however ALL live exported horses for slaughter suffer for financial gain. If the plight of slaughter horses was shown once a year to millions of viewers world wide more might be done to stop this hideous trade, however this isn't such an "easy target" as The GN.

But the two are separate issues... On the foot export for slaughter is wrong IMO... So is the GN IMO... They are both equally in need of being addressed... It's a bit of a straw man argument to suggest one area can be mitigated by comparison to other, equally distasteful (for some) area... You could flip it over and suggest that operating in the public eye with widespread societal acceptance and voluntary financial association by Joe Public is 'worse' than an activity that can flourish because it is so unknown...
 

Dab

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Deaths in National Hunt racing are so frequent, and in addition related to horse ability, ground conditions and field size, that a statistician could easily produce odds on a horse dying in any particular race at any particular NH meet.
...

As I said, you need to study more statistics, in particular probability. National Hunt deaths are not random, they are predictable and a good statistician would happily produce you the odds of a horse dying in any particular race. And since bookies use the same science of probability to predict winners, and insurers use it to predict claims, and bookies are rarely poor men and insurers never, then you can see how it works.
.

I've been trying to tell you that it's not that simple and that it's an estimate! But until horse racing publishes figures of horse deaths instead of deaths by number of runs, incuding the ones put down at home shortly after racing, we can have no real idea of a the true scale of the problem of deaths in NH racing. Publishing only deaths by runs is disengenuous and makes it look like they have something to hide.

Well this is clearly where the confusion centres.

Your arguements are based on predictability and probability, and that there is an unaccepatble level of fatalities in NH. Therefore, by making this claim it would appear that you have a sound knowledge of the statitisics centred around National Hunt fatalities.

However, when it is pointed out that your calculation of there being a 1/50 chance of a horse not finishing a season alive if it has run 5 times is incorrect, you now say it is only a simple estimate and this is what you have been saying all along!!! Yep it is, very simple and as you say a good statistician would happily produce you the odds!!!
 

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OK, I had a bad day at work so as already depressed I looked at the horse fatalities and made some stats from them.

Please note I'm doing this on a tablet so may have miss counted some of the figures as had to manually count them. Info on fatalities are from the AA website, other stats BHA website. I am looking at racing as a whole, not separating the different types so NH, flat ect... but not point to point or harness racing.

Last year there were 13680 horses in GB racing (though they might not all have raced that year)

There were approx 1400 fixtures, if you take the average fixture as having 7 races that is 9800 races.

Now to the fatalities according to AA there were 170 fatalities at GB race courses. if you take this without looking further then 1 in 57.6 races has a horse fatally injured, and a horse has a 1-80 chance of being fatally injured. Not good odds for the horse.

Now the interesting part and how figures get clouded..

Counting through the list only 64 of the horses were GB horses, this means statistically a UK horse has a 1/213 chance of a fatal injury at a GB race.

The other fatalities on UK race courses by country of horse are:

Ireland 80
France 18
USA 5
Germany 2
Newzeland 1

To give a full picture I'd need to know the stats for these countries and include them.

The odds could vary so much, how many GB horses die in races abroad, how many horses travel to the UK to race, both these figures could totally alter the odds in either direction. The one thing I would add is the UK is pretty open about horse racing fatalities compared to other countries.

one of my fav quotes:

lies, damned lies and statistics...

I just hope this gives a clearer picture on fatalities per horse but I fear it raises more questions than it answers.
 

cptrayes

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I think those figures may be for where the horse was bred, not where it lives. For example, a French flat racer I bought lived in Britain and raced here under a passport with (Fr) after his name, and the same with the USA bred one I had.

So 1 in 80 is more like the real figure, probably.

But it does not include the many, many horses which are transported back home with life threatening injuries - tendon ruptures and stress fractures probably the commonest - which are then put down off the racecourse but as a direct result of the race. Those figures aren't collected, at least I can't find them anywhere.

Thanks for the stats, interesting!
 
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Sherri

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I think those figures may be for where the horse was bred, not where it lives. For example, a French flat racer I bought lived in Britain and raced here under a passport with (Fr) after his name, and the same with the USA bred one I had.

So 1 in 80 is more like the real figure, probably.

But it does not include the many, many horses which are transported back home with life threatening injuries - tendon ruptures and stress fractures probably the commonest - which are then put down off the racecourse but as a direct result of the race. Those figures aren't collected, at least I can't find them anywhere.

Thanks for the stats, interesting!

OK, I wasn't clear on this so I'm happy that if it's breeding then the 1-80 odds it will be... but then we do need to include figures for horses travelled to the UK to race, which will alter this figure. I think the variables are why the BHA go with the figure per runners. But either way the figures I looked at are a lot different to BHA and I would of expected them to be nearer..

As you say this doesn't take into account horses PTS at home as a direct result of injury in a race, but then it raises the question then of how long after a race should this be counted as a race injury. I know for example a friend who was seriously injured in a car accident and died 3 days later wasn't included in the stats for fatal car crashes as they had died in hospital 3 days later... it's all very confusing.

Looking at the figures online in fairness to the UK horse racing, as a nation we are pretty open about them and the figures are easy to find with minimal fuss... I'm not saying the risks are wrong or right, but at least they are admitted to.
 

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Last year there were 13680 horses in GB racing (though they might not all have raced that year)

There were approx 1400 fixtures, if you take the average fixture as having 7 races that is 9800 races.

Now to the fatalities according to AA there were 170 fatalities at GB race courses. if you take this without looking further then 1 in 57.6 races has a horse fatally injured, and a horse has a 1-80 chance of being fatally injured. Not good odds for the horse.



one of my fav quotes:

lies, damned lies and statistics...

I just hope this gives a clearer picture on fatalities per horse but I fear it raises more questions than it answers.

Thanks for looking out the stats and good stats quote!

But, not following where the 1/80 chance comes from:

If there are 9800 races in a season i.e 1400 fixtures with 7 races per fixture then with say 6 horses on average running in each race that gives you 57600 raced horses in a season. i.e. one horse will race more than once in a season....

Divide the total number of raced horses by 170 fatalities give you odds of 1/338.

or if as you say there is on average a fatality per 57.6 races then one horse could enter 57 races before it is expected to die!

Hope that helps.
 
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Sherri

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Thanks for looking out the stats and good stats quote!

But, not following where the 1/80 chance comes from:

If there are 9800 races in a season i.e 1400 fixtures with 7 races per fixture then with say 6 horses on average running in each race that gives you 57600 raced horses in a season. i.e. one horse will race more than once in a season....

Divide the total number of raced horses by 170 fatalities give you odds of 1/338.

or if as you say there is on average a fatality per 57.6 races then one horse could enter 57 races before it is expected to die!

Hope that helps.

See problem with statistics, I divided the number of UK horses racing in 2011 against the number of fatalities in the UK... to give the fatalities per horse figure asked for.

Your figure of fatalities per runner is much better than the official BHA one which is a pleasant surprise as normally I expect them to have swayed the stats in their favour.

I hate statisitics.. any way made me realise my work problems aren't that bad no-one has died at my job..
 

Dab

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Your figure of fatalities per runner is much better than the official BHA one which is a pleasant surprise as normally I expect them to have swayed the stats in their favour.

I hate statisitics.. any way made me realise my work problems aren't that bad no-one has died at my job..

Indeed but it is likely that the BHA figure is more accurate i.e 4 per 1000 runners as the one done above was based on assumption, i.e 7 races per fixture and 6 horses per race.

Hope your work problems sort themselves out.
 

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And if the average horse runs 5 times a year, a 1 in 50 chance of finishing the season dead before the race has finished.

And how many more put down at home from injuries they can't recover from?

Would you hack your horse 5 times a year if it had a 1 in 50 or worse chance of dying if you did?


I think you'll find your 1/50 stat is wrong is this is correct :D : http://www.mathsisfun.com/fractions_multiplication.html

so with my calculations if a horse has a 1/250 chance of dying per race and runs 5 times the it has a 1/1250 chance of finishing the season dead......
 

cptrayes

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I think you'll find your 1/50 stat is wrong is this is correct :D : http://www.mathsisfun.com/fractions_multiplication.html

so with my calculations if a horse has a 1/250 chance of dying per race and runs 5 times the it has a 1/1250 chance of finishing the season dead......

No that's not how probability works. If it has a 1/250 chance of dying in one race it has a 1+1+1+1+1 in 250 chance of dying in 5 races - 1 in 50.

If you have a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a 6 and throw the dice 5 times, you have 5 chances to throw the 6.
 

Sherri

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If you have a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a 6 and throw the dice 5 times, you have 5 chances to throw the 6.

But each time you throw the dice you still only have a 1/6 probability of throwing a 6. The probability doesn't change.

I think you are confusing Probability with Chance (AKA likelyhood)

So with the lottery, there is the same probability that you will win with the following numbers:
1,2,3,4,5,6

But the chance of this happening!!!! well in all the draws runs so far a full sequence has never been drawn.
 

cptrayes

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I am not confusing anything.

The probability of a horse dying in one race cannot be five times more than the probability of it dying in five races, which is where your sums end up, just think about it.

The probability of a horse dying in one race may be, say, 1 in 50. If that is the case then the probability of it dying in two races is twice that, and so on. The probability of it dying in the second race is 1 in 50, but nevertheless, if it runs twice, its probability of dying in two races is twice the probability of it dying in one race at the point in time that none of those races have taken place.

Please go check up your stats, I really don't want to do this any more :(
 

cptrayes

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So with the lottery, there is the same probability that you will win with the following numbers:
1,2,3,4,5,6

But the chance of this happening!!!! well in all the draws runs so far a full sequence has never been drawn.

Sherri I'm sorry but you don't understand statistics or random draws. The number sequence 1,2,3,4,5,6 has not come up for exactly the same reason that most of the other 13,000,000 plus combinations have never come up. It just hasn't come up yet. There is no less chance, and no lower probability of those numbers coming up than any others. There just happen to be so many possible combinations that in 100 draws a year done for 100 years, most number combinations will never ever be drawn.
 
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Sherri

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I'm wondering how the stats of deaths in Horse Racing measure up to other sports involving animals.

Pigeon racing
Camel Racing
Greyhound racing
Husky/ sledge dog racing

Presuming that any person has to accept that any sport involving animals carries risk for the animal and therefore the possibilities of a fatality then how bad is horse racing. Is it the death race that AA would have us believe or is it a high risk sport that does it's best to minimise the risk as far as possible but that the inevitable accidents do happen.
 
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