Putting fatalities into prospective

[Sherri]

Sherri I'm sorry but you don't understand statistics or random draws. The number sequence 1,2,3,4,5,6 has not come up for exactly the same reason that most of the other 13,000,000 plus combinations have never come up. It just hasn't come up yet. There is no less chance, and no lower probability of those numbers coming up than any others. There just happen to be so many possible combinations that in 100 draws a year done for 100 years, most number combinations will never ever be drawn.

I think I just am way to bored on a friday night...

Probability is determined by analysis of data

Chance is something that has 'free will' and is indeterminable.

So my lottery draw analogy stands... numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 could be drawn.

Though the analysis of data we know that the probability of these numbers coming out are the same as any other numbers.

But the chance of them coming out in that order is not derterminable... try and work out how you could determine this there is no way of creating a statistic to cover it as the balls have 'free will' to be drawn.

I'm not saying the more times a horse is run that it doesn't increase the risk it faces, I'm just saying the probability stays the same... but the chance, well that's down to fate...

 

[Dab]

I am not confusing anything.

The probability of a horse dying in one race cannot be five times more than the probability of it dying in five races, which is where your sums end up, just think about it.

The probability of a horse dying in one race may be, say, 1 in 50. If that is the case then the probability of it dying in two races is twice that, and so on. The probability of it dying in the second race is 1 in 50, but nevertheless, if it runs twice, its probability of dying in two races is twice the probability of it dying in one race at the point in time that none of those races have taken place.

Please go check up your stats, I really don't want to do this any more

You might want to consider the following,

1.The probability does not increase per race run as you say.

2. It would only increase in this manner if the 4 deaths per 1000 had not happened up to the point of the second time the horse runs.

3. So say on the day that the horse runs it just so happened that 1000 horses ran and 4 died. Then the next time the horse ran, because the 4 horses per 1000 has already happened the clock is reset for that race.

 

[Sherri]

3. So say on the day that the horse runs it just so happened that 1000 horses ran and 4 died. Then the next time the horse ran, because the 4 horses per 1000 has already happened the clock is reset for that race.

Thats DEEP...

 

[Sherri]

Started with looking at pigeon racing here a excert from a news article for 1 race

by 1pm yesterday only 683 of the reported 2575 pigeons that entered the race had returned to Sun City.

Not good for pigeons...

 

[cptrayes]

You might want to consider the following,

1.The probability does not increase per race run as you say.


I specifically stated the opposite.

2. It would only increase in this manner if the 4 deaths per 1000 had not happened up to the point of the second time the horse runs.

3. So say on the day that the horse runs it just so happened that 1000 horses ran and 4 died. Then the next time the horse ran, because the 4 horses per 1000 has already happened the clock is reset for that race.

If NH horses have a 1 in 250 chance of dying in a race, then before the season starts, if it is to run 5 times that season, then it has a 1 in 250 chance of dying in any one of those races, and a 1 in 50 chance of being dead before the end of the season.

If you do not understand this then you may spend your time more effectively by going and reading a book on statistics than continuing to discuss this on here.

 

[cptrayes]

I think I just am way to bored on a friday night...

Probability is determined by analysis of data

Chance is something that has 'free will' and is indeterminable.

So my lottery draw analogy stands... numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 could be drawn.

Though the analysis of data we know that the probability of these numbers coming out are the same as any other numbers.

But the chance of them coming out in that order is not derterminable... try and work out how you could determine this there is no way of creating a statistic to cover it as the balls have 'free will' to be drawn.

I'm not saying the more times a horse is run that it doesn't increase the risk it faces, I'm just saying the probability stays the same... but the chance, well that's down to fate...

If you are saying that deaths in National Hunt racing are pure chance then I disagree with you. The way that the sport is set up will predictably cause the death of a large number of horses every year. There is a large element of chance in which horse it is, but since I own none of them and bet on none of them, that, to me, is an irrelevance to the discussion of whether NH racing, and the Grand National in particular, would be allowed to continue if it was any other horse sport.

I commend your concern for the deaths of other animals but two wrongs do not make a right.

 

[cptrayes]

Started with looking at pigeon racing here a excert from a news article for 1 race



Not good for pigeons...

Actually bloody brilliant. The rest of them are now living free lives instead of being stuck most of their time in people's garden sheds or racing pigeon livery. They didn't bother to go home. Doesn't mean they're dead

 

[Dab]

If NH horses have a 1 in 250 chance of dying in a race, then before the season starts, if it is to run 5 times that season, then it has a 1 in 250 chance of dying in any one of those races, and a 1 in 50 chance of being dead before the end of the season.

If you do not understand this then you may spend your time more effectively by going and reading a book on statistics than continuing to discuss this on here.

This is where your misunderstanding arises, a NH horse does not have a 1 in 250 chance of dying in a race, it has a 1/250 chance of only dying in A race if 1000 horses are running that day.

Therefore over the course of the season, you can only work out the probability of it being dead by the end of the season based on the number of races it it is to run by looking at the total number of raced horses in that season.

Your confusion is that you are trying to muddled and asign the statistic of 4 deaths per 1000 with just one race.

 

[cptrayes]

This is where your misunderstanding arises, a NH horse does not have a 1 in 250 chance of dying in a race, it has a 1/250 chance of only dying in A race if 1000 horses are running that day.

Therefore over the course of the season, you can only work out the probability of it being dead by the end of the season based on the number of races it it is to run by looking at the total number of raced horses in that season.

Your confusion is that you are trying to muddled and asign the statistic of 4 deaths per 1000 with just one race.

I am not confused at all and it is your statistics which are wrong, not mine.

The number of horses running in that race or on that day are not relevant. The horse has a 1 in 250 chance of being the 1 horse in 250 that dies for the particular group of 250 runs that it happens to number amongst. It matters not to this probability calculation whether these 250 runs are are on the same day, never mind at the same meeting and still less in the same race*. And if it runs 5 times, it has 5 chances in 250 to die, and that is 1 in 50.

I will repeat, if you have a problem understanding this you will be much better off using your time to learn the mathematics of probability than you will continuing this argument with me, which you cannot win because you are not right.



* it is necessary of course - if the most accurate odds of a horse dying in a particular race are to be calculated - to take into acccount lots of other factors including the number of runners, but from the point of view of predicting before the season starts and those factors are known, the probability of a horse surviving the season if it runs 5 times, this calculation is about as close as we can get.

 

[Dab]

Deaths in National Hunt racing are so frequent, and in addition related to horse ability, ground conditions and field size, that a statistician could easily produce odds on a horse dying in any particular race at any particular NH meet.
...

No that's not how probability works. If it has a 1/250 chance of dying in one race it has a 1+1+1+1+1 in 250 chance of dying in 5 races - 1 in 50.

If NH horses have a 1 in 250 chance of dying in a race, .

* it is necessary of course - if the most accurate odds of a horse dying in a particular race are to be calculated - to take into acccount lots of other factors including the number of runners, but from the point of view of predicting before the season starts and those factors are known, the probability of a horse surviving the season if it runs 5 times, this calculation is about as close as we can get.

Then there has been a misunderstanding with regard to what odds were being discussed, i.e. not the odds of a horse dying in any particular RACE but instead the average statistic before any horse has set foot on the turf.

 

[Sherri]

If you are saying that deaths in National Hunt racing are pure chance then I disagree with you.

Probability is only a LIKELY hood of what can happen based on past FACT. So yes a Horse racing fatality is down to all factors including fate. I'm not saying it's all fate, but that's a big part of it.

I commend your concern for the deaths of other animals but two wrongs do not make a right.

Actually I was wondering how fatality rates compare, so I could see if horse racing is as bad as the likes of Animal Aid, PETA and RSPCA would like the general public to believe.

The figures are very hard to find though, for example I've found information that suggests that pigeon racing has as high as a 75% fatality rate, camel racing is very hard to find figures on other than the child jockeys that have died, and Husky racing gives a stats of 2 dogs per itiarod race but not much on the racing as a whole. I'm not saying the deaths are right or wrong, but animals including people DIE.

Actually bloody brilliant. The rest of them are now living free lives instead of being stuck most of their time in people's garden sheds or racing pigeon livery. They didn't bother to go home. Doesn't mean they're dead

Kinda naive statement to make... I'd love to think of them living free but for starters they are domesticated so would struggle with wild living. The statement presumes that their care is substandard and I have no fact of that.

I can't say whether based on statistical information horse racing is cruel or not as to make an informed decision I'd need to see the mortality rates for all horses living in the UK. IS horse racing substantially higher? PETA, AA & RSPCA would have us believe it is, but until I'm shown hard evidence that the mortality rates are higher than other equestrian sport I will keep an open mind. I would love to also see how it compares to other sports involving animals but the information isn't as available, the BHA say they are continuously working to improve the welfare of the horses and these figures would of helped to prove this.

It is a very sad fact that animals die, but how much influence we have on their mortality rate is hard to judge.

Chance! fate! whatever you would like to call it has a big part to play as well. The statistic of deaths per race proves this, 1 fatality per 57.6 races meand that yes a horse in theory could ring 57 races and not face death, but looking at the information on some horses that have sadly lost their lives on race courses it was their first 10 races..

 

[cptrayes]

It is a very sad fact that animals die, but how much influence we have on their mortality rate is hard to judge.

It is very easy to judge how much influence that we have over the mortality rates during a race of National Hunt jump racers. You compare them with a group of horses that do the same job - provide the basic raw material of the betting industry - in flat racing (NH or non NH fflat races or both together) and you count how many more jumpers die than flat racers. Simples!

 

[Sherri]

It is very easy to judge how much influence that we have over the mortality rates during a race of National Hunt jump racers. You compare them with a group of horses that do the same job - provide the basic raw material of the betting industry - in flat racing (NH or non NH fflat races or both together) and you count how many more jumpers die than flat racers. Simples!

In some respects you are right, NH may have a higher fatality rate than flat racers, I've taken racing as a whole and not separated them but the bigger picture needs to be looked at.

For sake of fatal injuries, we only have the racecourse figures.. As you mentioned there are the horses that break down following an race, say withing 7 days of a race for statistics sake.

To see if horses racing has a higher mortality rate than other sports involving animals (inc other equestrian sports) then we need to be allowed access to these figures, these would have to include fatalities from injury and numbers competing. This would enable 'Jo Public' to make a better informed decision. From limited research I can say that horse racing is the most open on publishing this information. Try finding out how many racing camels were PTS last year...

It's very easy to single out 1 sport but is this the right sport to target. I've worked on both a National Hunt yard and a Harness Racing yard, and I know what horse I'd prefer to be in terms of risk of injury and post career prospects.

We can all crunch numbers all day long, but I will quote again

Lies, dammed lies and statistics

And fate is a force that NO ONE can alter..

 

[Navalgem]

We can all crunch numbers all day long, but I will quote again

Lies, dammed lies and statistics

And fate is a force that NO ONE can alter..

I agree. Ironically my first lecture of my Psychology degree was a lecture about how people/media etc lie with statistics............ LOL! (and therefore, as 'good' scientists, how we must avoid it!

Also, I don't think you can just simply the death ratio of 4/1000 to 1/250. or that's what they would have quoted surely? Must be some reason for it.

 

[Navalgem]

No that's not how probability works. If it has a 1/250 chance of dying in one race it has a 1+1+1+1+1 in 250 chance of dying in 5 races - 1 in 50.

If you have a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a 6 and throw the dice 5 times, you have 5 chances to throw the 6.

yes BUT each time you throw you still only have a 1/6 chance of throwing the six!!! so you were correct in saying the chance is 1/6 x 1/6x 1/6 x 1/6 x1/6.

 

[Venevidivici]

Haven't read whole thread and am rubbish at statistics but we had a racing pigeon(had a tag) turn up at the yard last year-it stayed for weeks,roosting in the woodstore next to the chicken coop,sharing chicken food and snoozing in the sun. The kids named it,the liveries talked to it and it looked very happy Then one day,it went. I reckon he had a lovely little self-imposed 'holiday' from racing

 

[Rowreach]

Haven't read whole thread and am rubbish at statistics but we had a racing pigeon(had a tag) turn up at the yard last year-it stayed for weeks,roosting in the woodstore next to the chicken coop,sharing chicken food and snoozing in the sun. The kids named it,the liveries talked to it and it looked very happy Then one day,it went. I reckon he had a lovely little self-imposed 'holiday' from racing

... and sadly if he went home after his holiday he'd have had his neck wrung for being a useless racing pigeon

 

[cptrayes]

In some respects you are right, NH may have a higher fatality rate than flat racers, I've taken racing as a whole and not separated them but the bigger picture needs to be looked at.

May? May? for goodness sake Sherri, you'd have to be blind and deaf not to know that it does.

To see if horses racing has a higher mortality rate than other sports involving animals (inc other equestrian sports) then we need to be allowed access to these figures, these would have to include fatalities from injury and numbers competing. This would enable 'Jo Public' to make a better informed decision. From limited research I can say that horse racing is the most open on publishing this information. Try finding out how many racing camels were PTS last year...

Two wrongs do not make a right.

And fate is a force that NO ONE can alter..

If you choose to call it fate that predictably somewhere between 1 in 50 and 1 in 80 horses which National Hunt race will die during the last of their races, and more will be put down shortly afterwards at home, that's up to you.

But I don't call that fate, I call that man-made and avoidable horse death.



ps I too provide a holiday destination for tagged racing pigeons from time to time.

 

[amandat]

... and sadly if he went home after his holiday he'd have had his neck wrung for being a useless racing pigeon

OMG where do some of you people get off, making such statements due to your assumptions. How do you know the birds owners weren't waiting from it to come home every day ?? You don't do you ??

 

[Honeylight]

When I was a kid I had a re-homed racing pigeon as a pet. It came back to the loft hurt & as it was a champion the owner hesitated in killing it (he could no longer fly) so he asked my Dad who was on an adjoining allotment if he would like him for a pet for his little girl. We had Dandy for years.

So not all the pigeon racing people are bad. I know they want them back & do not necessarily kill them if they are late back from a race as they know there are lots of things that can cause a delay.

 

[Rowreach]

OMG where do some of you people get off, making such statements due to your assumptions. How do you know the birds owners weren't waiting from it to come home every day ?? You don't do you ??

I like making assumptions. It makes me feel as if I belong

 

[amandat]

well if insulting a certain group of people makes you feel like that i feel sorry for you

 

[Rowreach]

amandat you will need a sense of humour and a thicker skin if you are going to survive on HHO

 

[amandat]

amandat you will need a sense of humour and a thicker skin if you are going to survive on HHO

it's ok i've got both
this percentage thing is getting so boring must've bored into my brain haha

 

[Venevidivici]

Well,I like to think our holiday-pigeon (if he went home after us,or maybe on to some other hol destination, a two-stop hol? Hey,or maybe he'd decided to take a sabbatical and go travelling for a year to various holiday spots?!?) that his kindly little old dear of a bloke who owned him had been gazing at the horizon for him for 2weeks and was overjoyed when he returned,giving him the pigeon equivalent of a steak dinner and stroking him&talking to him until bedtime,in sheer happiness that he had his favourite bird back. Hmm...I may have watched too many Disney films with the kids over the rainy Easter hols....but anyway..that's the version in my head&I'm sticking to it

 

[Venevidivici]

Sorry,don't mean to lower the cerebral tone of the rather serious statistical discussion above :-/ Am just in a silly mood

 

[cptrayes]

Sorry,don't mean to lower the cerebral tone of the rather serious statistical discussion above :-/ Am just in a silly mood

It has been scientifically proven that if a thread goes on long enough there is a 100% probability that someone in a silly mood will join it I have visions of your pigeon on a deck chair wearing sunglasses.

 

[cptrayes]

Guess wot I've got today ???? I couldnt' get the flash to work, so it's a bit indistinct, but this ringed racing pigeon is happily living in my yard today. He's got plenty to eat and he didn't seem much bothered by horses so I wonder where he's come from. He actually popped over the door while I was grooming one of them and sat in his food bucket

What a coincidence he should arrive today!


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eGEWNKDJ7Dw/T5WN2Ny0QeI/AAAAAAAAA4k/xCG_Si5HaP4/s640/PICT0130.JPG

 

[Dobiegirl]

Many years ago we had a racing pigeon turn up, we caught him and got his details off his ring and rang Cheltenham which is the pigeon racing capital of the world. This pigeon came from Northen Ireland and the owner got in touch with us obviously thinking we raced pigeons and offered to transfer ownership to us.
Well to cut a long story short this pigeon stayed and a female turned up and they bred, we never had more than 6 at anyone time as the Sparrow Hawk sorted them out and on one occasion a Peregrine.

 

[Elf On A Shelf]

Well to cut a long story short this pigeon stayed and a female turned up and they bred, we never had more than 6 at anyone time as the Sparrow Hawk sorted them out and on one occasion a Peregrine.

Now that is how you control the over-breeding of racing pigeons! Very good plan!