Help...quick... I have covid ?

[doodle]

The death rate is going up. There will be a lag from the infections going up but in 2 weeks we will be seeing it. Even if we are better at treating it and stop people dying, hospitals will (and are) have more admissions. And admissions are going up. The NHS did well earlier this year but they are at risk of being swamped again. This in turn leads to other illnesses not being treated. And I know how terrifying it is to be sent home from hospital when unwell with 2 hours notice. The entire ward was closed so it could be kept empty to then be used to treat Covid.

 

[Winters100]

why do we need to isolate NOW because the flu virus/pneumonia is currently a worse killer than covid in the uk and we do not isolate for that ????????

Please keep this in perspective - in the uk we have an average of 1500 deaths A DAY of which currently very few are covid - I think the current covid death average is about 1% of all deaths over the past few weeks and the flu/pneumonia is about 2%

Currently the average uk death rate is below the 5 year average because the virus killed many earlier this year who would be dying now - the true excess uk death rate will not be known until about easter 2021

Pneumonia is usually a bacterial infection - so completely different from Covid or flu.

Viral pneumonia may be caused by the covid virus, among others.

Pneumonia is often the final cause of death for patients with other conditions.

Flu may be vaccinated against.

As you can see there are clear differences.

Do you doubt the seriousness of this ROG? Are the WHO, the NHS and the governments of every country in the world somehow colluding to exaggerate how serious this is? We have all seen the footage of refrigerated trucks outside hospitals in NYC being used to store bodies. We have seen images of hospitals in Italy totally overwhelmed. Is this what you want for the UK, or do you believe these images to be somehow fake?

I can tell you that those working in hospitals do not want to be putting themselves and their families at increased risk because people refuse to take this matter seriously. Likewise those who have lost family members to this virus must feel very upset to read your question of "why do we need to isolate NOW"? The answer is that we need to do it to save lives, and is it really so difficult?

 

[doodle]

why do we need to isolate NOW because the flu virus/pneumonia is currently a worse killer than covid in the uk and we do not isolate for that ????????

Please keep this in perspective - in the uk we have an average of 1500 deaths A DAY of which currently very few are covid - I think the current covid death average is about 1% of all deaths over the past few weeks and the flu/pneumonia is about 2%

Currently the average uk death rate is below the 5 year average because the virus killed many earlier this year who would be dying now - the true excess uk death rate will not be known until about easter 2021

Yes but at the peak 1445 people died in 1 Day. So double the normal deaths each day from Covid. If that happened again which is most likely will then even more die. The death rate from Covid is already higher than that of flu.

 

[Abi90]

Pneumonia also has a vaccination, as does flu , Covid on the other hand does not, and as already stated without lockdown and social distancing how many more would have died. Cannot believe someone suggested because people also die from flu and pneumonia ( far fewer people than die from Covid ) Covid is an overreaction . Additionally the flu season has not yet taken off so currently more people are still dying from Covid , so the comment more are currently dying from flu is definitely incorrect.

It’s definitely not incorrect. It has been widely reported by various news sources, including the BBC, that in July and August 5 times as many people died from Summer Flu and Pneumonia than they did COVID-19. Sorry, it’s not incorrect.

I think ROG was trying to provide perspective. Every time you set foot outside your door you are risk managing things. Sending children to school is risk management, a healthy child is much more likely to die of Influenza than COVID-19 yet no one panics in a bad flu year. You take a calculated risk when you get into your car or miss some form of cancer screening. There is risk of death everywhere. Death is part of life.

The number one respiratory killer in the world is air pollution and 1 in 4 people struggle in some way physically because of it. I assume everyone here is still driving? Including those with big uneconomical horse boxes?

Just some food for thought

 

[shortstuff99]

It’s definitely not incorrect. It has been widely reported by various news sources, including the BBC, that in July and August 5 times as many people died from Summer Flu and Pneumonia than they did COVID-19. Sorry, it’s not incorrect.

I think ROG was trying to provide perspective. Every time you set foot outside your door you are risk managing things. Sending children to school is risk management, a healthy child is much more likely to die of Influenza than COVID-19 yet no one panics in a bad flu year. You take a calculated risk when you get into your car or miss some form of cancer screening. There is risk of death everywhere. Death is part of life.

The number one respiratory killer in the world is air pollution and 1 in 4 people struggle in some way physically because of it. I assume everyone here is still driving? Including those with big uneconomical horse boxes?

Just some food for thought

I had a look at this and it is not flu is 5 times more deadly then covid but when covid deaths were at their lowest level flu was killing 5 times more people. If people are being infected at the same rate as flu it kills about 10 times more people. Flue death rate is about 0.01 covid death rate 0.1.

 

[Abi90]

I had a look at this and it is not flu is 5 times more deadly then covid but when covid deaths were at their lowest level flu was killing 5 times more people. If people are being infected at the same rate as flu it kills about 10 times more people. Flue death rate is about 0.01 covid death rate 0.1.

I never said flu was more deadly I said 5 times as many people died of it in July and August then they did COVID. Lannerch told ROG that was incorrect, but it’s not.

Influenza is genuinely more deadly to a child than COVID-19 though. Children are in the “at risk” group for it but not COVID

 

[shortstuff99]

I never said flu was more deadly I said 5 times as many people died of it in July and August then they did COVID. Lannerch told ROG that was incorrect, but it’s not.

Influenza is genuinely more deadly to a child than COVID-19 though. Children are in the “at risk” group for it but not COVID

Well yes, which is why none of this has been geared for keeping children safe (hence why schools can stay open) but for the people that are at risk.

 

[Abi90]

Well yes, which is why none of this has been geared for keeping children safe (hence why schools can stay open) but for the people that are at risk.

And yet people are still panicking about it not being safe to send their children to school (not just to protect vulnerable adults) but because they are terrified for their children.

Here’s some more perspective:

On average 10 million people contract TB every year and 1.5 million people die of it. TB has a vaccine and a reliable treatment yet 1.5 million die each year! Oh, and the scary part, it’s becoming more and more resistant to antibiotics. Without antibiotics it has a pretty high mortality rate. Anyone scared about that?

I’m not saying COVID-19 isn’t potentially dangerous or fatal and that we shouldn’t be trying to protect people. I’m saying that ROG wasn’t wrong to try and add some perspective to the situation but instead got slammed for it. There are literally more deadly things outside your doorstep that you won’t give a second thought to or even know about

 

[shortstuff99]

And yet people are still panicking about it not being safe to send their children to school (not just to protect vulnerable adults) but because they are terrified for their children.

Here’s some more perspective:

On average 10 million people contract TB every year and 1.5 million people die of it. TB has a vaccine and a reliable treatment yet 1.5 million die each year! Oh, and the scary part, it’s becoming more and more resistant to antibiotics. Without antibiotics it has a pretty high mortality rate. Anyone scared about that?

I’m not saying COVID-19 isn’t potentially dangerous or fatal and that we shouldn’t be trying to protect people. I’m saying that ROG wasn’t wrong to try and add some perspective to the situation but instead got slammed for it. There are literally more deadly things outside your doorstep that you won’t give a second thought to or even know about

I know, I'm a geneticist who worked on host parasite resistance. There are lots of deadly things out there, but this is a novel disease with no known treatment, vaccine or full knowledge of the transmission process. This is why you have to be cautious of it and take it seriously. The TB you mention could be solved but a lack of money is the main driver behind it not having been done so in developing countries. Scientist would know exactly what to in a TB outbreak but not so here, that's the problem.

 

[ozpoz]

The death rate figures are misleading though. They are people who have tested positive for Covid in that month, and then died. Of anything, even a car accident.

 

[Abi90]

I know, I'm a geneticist who worked on host parasite resistance. There are lots of deadly things out there, but this is a novel disease with no known treatment, vaccine or full knowledge of the transmission process. This is why you have to be cautious of it and take it seriously. The TB you mention could be solved but a lack of money is the main driver behind it not having been done so in developing countries. Scientist would know exactly what to in a TB outbreak but not so here, that's the problem.

I’m not not taking it seriously or not being cautious!

I merely pointed out that every time you step foot outside your door, or even get out of bed tbh, that you are dicing with death. And correcting Lannerch for saying that more people didn’t die of Flu than COVID than they did over the summer.

Some people are beyond being cautious and are genuinely terrified verging on the hysterical

 

[southerncomfort]

It is hospitalisations and deaths that matter not infection rates so why does the Govt set so much by infection rates of which they do not know and will probably never know the true figure?????

Common sense and logic says any responses should be based on known facts

Don't forget how long it takes to die from covid though. It'll be another week or two before we see the real effects from the recent spike in infections.

Its back in care homes again which is the frightening thing.

And as others have said, its not just about deaths. Its about the long term, maybe permanent, health implications. People have been left with breathing problems, heart defects etc.

You need to look at what's happening across Europe. Countries that had infections begin to rise last month are now seeing the death rate up in the hundreds again.

 

[Trouper]

I have been following this thread with sympathy for the OP but with increasing irritation with the confusion we have all got ourselves into about this wretched virus. That is NOT directed at ANY of the posters on here but, probably now, at the authorities over the confusion their thinking and messages have caused.
I think we were all behind the regulations introduced in March and the strain on the NHS was clear to see. The easing of restrictions was welcome but, all of a sudden, folk were jetting off on overseas holidays, meeting in larger and larger groups as if it were a normal Summer. Conversely, all the time businesses were trying to follow guidelines to offer us the services we had been missing.
We know what we have to do now when we go out and about. Businesses have set up (generally) safe systems to operate. What I want now is for the Government to get its act together and concentrate on those areas which are causing a rise in cases. I am not sure lockdown in itself is the answer as cases will just rise again when it is lifted. The death figures are clearly inaccurate as has now been admitted and, like ROG, I think we need some perspective on virus deaths compared with death from other causes - in my mid-70's I feel entitled to say this!!
I would like some honesty from Government about the testing and track/trace system - I feel I am just getting "political speak" on how it is really working. I would like more info on how the scientists see the virus developing and how the cases admitted to hospital now compare with those in March. I would like to see a more nuanced approach to all the information which is coming our way.
In summary - I would just like to be treated like an adult who is capable of taking precautions to protect others but who will make informed decisions about my own risk (and life!).
Rant over.

 

[LadyGascoyne]

And yet people are still panicking about it not being safe to send their children to school (not just to protect vulnerable adults) but because they are terrified for their children.

Here’s some more perspective:

On average 10 million people contract TB every year and 1.5 million people die of it. TB has a vaccine and a reliable treatment yet 1.5 million die each year! Oh, and the scary part, it’s becoming more and more resistant to antibiotics. Without antibiotics it has a pretty high mortality rate. Anyone scared about that?

I’m not saying COVID-19 isn’t potentially dangerous or fatal and that we shouldn’t be trying to protect people. I’m saying that ROG wasn’t wrong to try and add some perspective to the situation but instead got slammed for it. There are literally more deadly things outside your doorstep that you won’t give a second thought to or even know about

But if you’re using the logic of which is the most present threat:

TB is rife in Southern Africa, where people often do not have access to vaccines and medical help or are culturally unwilling to engage with vaccination programmes as they believe illnesses are caused by spirits who choose who to infect. A large proportion of those dying of TB will also be HIV positive.

So no, it’s not more likely to kill the average UK person than COVID is, regardless of whether it kills more people globally.

On the topic of air pollution being the fourth largest respiratory killer (someone mentioned above). Air pollution also includes tobacco smoke, working in environments where there is high chemical exposure, and exposure to particulates from mining.

If you’re a smoking, factory worker exposed to chemicals on a daily basis and living in overcrowded living quarters in a highly polluted city, you are at serious risk. If you are a full time mum, living in the Cotswolds, you can probably be exposed to a level of road pollution without it pushing you into a high risk bracket.

The issue with COVID is that if you are exposed to it, you are highly likely to be contract it. You are also highly likely to pass it on.

Re death rates v flu, I think it’s bizarre that anyone ends up in a debate where the fact that one virus kills means they aren’t so concerned about the next.

If we have the opportunity to prevent harm to a person, should we not try to do so? Regardless of whether a car could hit that person the next day, or they could die of flu next year.

 

[Goldenstar]

Personally I am not least worried about TB .

 

[Abi90]

If we have the opportunity to prevent harm to a person, should we not try to do so? Regardless of whether a car could hit that person the next day, or they could die of flu next year.

But by the logic then we have the opportunity to prevent harm to people by banning all cars so no one can die in a car accident, even if they subsequently die COVID? What makes the car accident death or Influenza death more tolerable?

I am absolutely not saying we shouldn’t try and prevent harm. I work in a job where safety and risk management are very important but we talk in terms of ALARP - As Low A Risk As Practicable not “No Risk”.

You treat and manage risk as best you can but realise that you can not eliminate risk entirely without completely stopping “output” which carries other risks.

I get the feeling, not particularly from here, that people want to risk from COVID to be “no risk at all” which is practically impossible

 

[ycbm]

A very interesting opinion piece from Money Week. (It also confirms for me why I don't accept mammogram invitations.)

https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-ec...-is-driving-fear-of-a-second-wave-of-covid-19

 

[honetpot]

I am just disappointed with the whole response. We had a slight advantage that we were two weeks behind the rest of Europe, and there seemed to be the idea that Brits do it better, and we had the same pattern of disease spread here, with no making use of other counties' knowledge. The whole mask fiasco in particular.
We didn't have enough PPE, even if had been a normal 'flu' pandemic and the response to acquire it was a muddle. Once they realised they were aware they could not contain they stopped trying to test. So we were constantly reacting, and not being proactive.

People are already bunging up A&E, which has a knock on effect for the rest of the hospital, whether they have covid or not, because they can get a test they are worried, so they go to A&E. The last place they need to be, where they get put in the 'hot' section, where their chances of being in contact with someone with the virus increase. As a lot of the patients who are admitted with the virus need oxygen, and antibiotics, they are competing for care with the same patients who have normal winter pneumonia, who needing O2 and antibiotics, so it's not just about ITU beds, it's about more people needing a higher level of care, with a finite amount of staff and resources. Then when these people are fit enough to be discharged will they fit enough to go back to work or even fit to go back to their own home. If there is no care bed, the hospitals' ability to take in new patients is reduced.
In some areas the normal vaccination scheme was put on hold at the start, so there are a lot of children who have not had their normal school vaccinations, so lets hope we do not get an outbreak of those diseases.
I only thing we can control is our own behaviour, so if you think you have it stay at home, and self isolate, and treat everyone you meet as if they have it.

 

[LadyGascoyne]

But by the logic then we have the opportunity to prevent harm to people by banning all cars so no one can die in a car accident, even if they subsequently die of COVID?

Well no, because we are thinking about causing harm.

If you get in a car and drive, you may cause an accident but you would take reasonable precautions not to.

I’d liken that to going to a pub not knowing 100% whether you do or don’t have COVID because there is a chance that you’re asymptomatic.

If you have COVID and you go out and mix with people, you are knowingly putting them at risk.

I’d liken that to driving drunk.

 

[Abi90]

Well no, because we are thinking about causing harm.

If you get in a car and drive, you may cause an accident but you would take reasonable precautions not to.

I’d liken that to going to a pub not knowing 100% whether you do or don’t have COVID because there is a chance that you’re asymptomatic.

If you have COVID and you go out and mix with people, you are knowingly putting them at risk.

I’d liken that to driving drunk.

At what point have I ever said “do what you like and ditch all precautions”? I haven’t.

In fact when I read the OP I thought “hmmm they should probably be in the house and asking a livery to do their horses in return for reduced livery”.

What I see every day is terrified people, terrified of leaving their houses (using the correct precautions) who have lost the ability to risk manage for themselves and lost all perspective

 

[Gloi]

I have just heard on the BBC News that any-one who who tests positive but doesn't self-isolate will be fined £1000. No mention of who is going to police it.

That sounds a good way to ensure anyone worried about problems from self isolating avoids going for a test.

 

[shortstuff99]

I have always thought that rather then giving clear, logical advice that scientists recommend the government went for the 'terrify the populace' option that was never going to work.

If from the start they had said we will strictly enforce distance between individuals, hand washing and no crowding in an enclosed space (and possibly even masks but that's a so so option) then most of this could have been avoided. Instead they left it up to people to decide and as we all know, people are not good at making decisions and will interprete things differently!

 

[Gloi]

The death rate figures are misleading though. They are people who have tested positive for Covid in that month, and then died. Of anything, even a car accident.

and people who were tested positive for covid and took 5 weeks to die from it are no longer counted.

 

[Dasher66]

People seemed disposed to treat it seriously until Dom went to Barnard Castle.

 

[LadyGascoyne]

At what point have I ever said “do what you like and ditch all precautions”? I haven’t.

In fact when I read the OP I thought “hmmm they should probably be in the house and asking a livery to do their horses in return for reduced livery”.

What I see every day is terrified people, terrified of leaving their houses (using the correct precautions) who have lost the ability to risk manage for themselves and lost all perspective

I haven’t said that you’ve said to reduce all risk, I was just responding to your comment on banning all cars because there might be an accident. I don’t think the COVID situation is comparable.

It is awful for those who are terrified but there are equally people who are completely the opposite. The terrified people who don’t want to leave their house are actually less of a risk to the situation than those who think its “not a big deal.”

I’m sorry but I have to vote for ‘stay terrified’ until we have the capacity and vaccine scheme to mitigate the bar-crawling, party-hosting, ‘it’s my life, it’s my choice’ brigade who won’t isolate properly or send children at school without quarantining post holidays.

 

[Abi90]

I have always thought that rather then giving clear, logical advice that scientists recommend the government went for the 'terrify the populace' option that was never going to work. !

Totally agree with you here. And the rest of what you said.

 

[lannerch]

I’m not not taking it seriously or not being cautious!

I merely pointed out that every time you step foot outside your door, or even get out of bed tbh, that you are dicing with death. And correcting Lannerch for saying that more people didn’t die of Flu than COVID than they did over the summer.

Some people are beyond being cautious and are genuinely terrified verging on the hysterical

I struggle to believe in this county more people died of flu for the months stated, flu is notoriously a winter disease hence I am currently vaccinating people now in preparation and as yet is not around yet . Covid on the other hand is definitely here .

I also give pneumonia vaccines for currently 23 strains of pneumonia, as with flu that doesn’t cover all strains just the more common. I do not as yet sadly vaccinate for Covid. There lies the problem.

I also in my line of work are seeing a lot of deaths not directly due to Covid but a result of Covid , not getting correct treatment, not going be able to see the dr early enough etc when they would in normal times , so the related death rate is so much higher. So sad.

 

[Abi90]

I struggle to believe in this county more people died of flu for the months stated, flu is notoriously a winter disease hence I am currently vaccinating people now in preparation and as yet is not around yet . Covid on the other hand is definitely here .

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/summer-flu-is-now-more-deadly-than-covid

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....tributed-deaths-covid-since-june-new-ons/amp/

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.theweek.co.uk/107790/flu-killing-more-people-than-covid-19?amp


I will cite references rather than just hearsay. Figures taken from the ONS

Interestingly one of the articles also says that summer flu deaths are down 50% on the yearly average which shows that social distancing etc probably is working

 

[southerncomfort]

At the end of the day its just about being sensible and doing the responsible thing.

I was due to go and visit my parents today (they live two and a half hours away). We are about to go under local lockdown here for the foreseeable and I think its probably my last chance to see them this year.

Unfortunately youngest daughter has woken up with a sore throat and tickly cough. Its probably just a back-to-school cold but my parents are in their 70's. So the trip is cancelled as I won't put them at risk. Ive seen my parents twice this year.

It is really really hard but if I went anyway it would be incredibly selfish.

On another note, I was reading about one of the things that caused the spike in cases in Bolton.

Some great eejit came back from holiday abroad and not only refused to self isolate, but went on a pub crawl. Two days later he tested positive for covid. ?

 

[lannerch]

Agh but the figures quoted are influenza AND pneumonia, Covid and pneumonia would beat it hands down.
Pneumonia kills most people in hospital, often caught in hospital as a result of going in for something else. That makes sense , but I would be very surprised if more people died of summer flu than Covid .